The historical forces unleashed the illegal invasion of Iraq.

It is becoming a telltale that ‘Only someone as strong and brutal as Saddam Hussein’ could keep the country together.

The enmity between the various sections of the Iraqi society, Fanned by the US forces from day one, is taking its lethal course in vicious killings and counter killings.

However, following the 2003 US war on Saddam Hussein, not even the Iranians could have dreamt of such a wonderful outcome.  Iraq which was encouraged and seduced into attacking Iran after the 1979 Khomeini revolution, was supported and financed by almost all the Sunni Gulf kingdoms and sheikdoms openly and covertly almost by most western nations led by UK ,US . But now Iraq, the historical rival to Persia lies supine and destroyed, on the verge of a civil war and even division

US hostility has helped an unknown hardliner to win Iran's presidency, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, a top confidant of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who heads the powerful conservative Guardian Council, told worshippers at Tehran's Friday prayers, "Fortunately, after years of effort and expectations in Iraq, an Islamic state has come to power and the constitution has been established on the basis of Islamic precepts".

"We must congratulate the Iraqi people and authorities for this victory", and added that all justice-seeking counties of the world "Have no model other than the Islamic revolution in Iran to turn to".
"We are the winners in the nuclear issue, too", beamed Jannati. "The way is paved for our progress and we just need to work hard". He also added that the rising oil prices had placed Iran on a sound financial footing. "We still have problems, but less than before".

Conclusions:

Bad money drives good money out of circulation!

Apart from an earlier report by the US Audit about over $ 8 billion of Iraqi money not being accounted for fully for the period of US Administrator Paul Bremer's reign, a recent report for the 8 month period after that, compiled by the Iraqi Board of Supreme Audit has concluded that at least half, and probably more, of $1.27bn of Iraqi money spent on military procurement has disappeared into a miasma of kickbacks and vanished middlemen - or else has been spent on useless equipment.

New York Times confirmed what was obvious to close observers—that the US is denying the new Iraqi army heavy arms for fear they might be turned eventually on US forces. At the same time, attacks on US forces in Iraq are now back to over 70 per day. US will cross the 2, 000dead mark before too much longer, and things are about to get much, worse.

As Iraqis continue to say, "Today is better than tomorrow." The same goes for US troops there. No wonder a relatively recent US Army survey in Iraq foundthat54 % of all soldiers reported either "low" or "very low” morale & moral too!

The interplay of forces in Iraq is operating at many levels.  The sunnis, while preparing to register to reject the Constitution on October 15, when it reaches that stage, would carry on their resistance in order to liberate Iraq from the occupying forces.

The political and security power vacuum after the fiasco of the draft Constitution would make it quicker.

USA had thought that it would be able to manipulate Shiia Cleric Ali Sistani and Shies for its objectives, while the Shies, adept at surviving Arabs, Mongols , Turks and others throughout their long history thought they would use the American military forces to neutralize the Baathist power and forces.  Apart from Shiia Al Bader militia group, the new Iraqis security forces and police are being recruited from Shia's and Kurds, which explains why they are the target of Sunni and foreign resistance groups.

The Kurds also have their own militia groups led by Talabani and Barzani but despite the current ban homie between the two groups, there are fundamental differences in their objectives.  Their current joint aim is how to take over or the oil rich Kirkuk region which will give them wealth and economic clout enabling them to declare sovereignty.  Their problems would come from Turkey in the North.

Nevertheless, the people are fed up and tired of these games Moqtda As-Sadr is one leader, who understands the American game .He also understands the manipulations by the Shiia Clerics

The author remains hopeful that the Iraqis would realize the Anglo-Saxon game of exploiting religious and other differences.  USA is already building military bases for long term stay.  It should be remembered that even those who had voted for Shiia parties had been promised that the US forces would leave soon. Nearly 90 members of the Iraqi Parliament had demanded the withdrawal of the US forces.

The dangers of civil wars and the division of the country now look quite ominous.  Once escalation builds up it would be very difficult to stop it.  The Americans and certainly its regional Sheriff Israel have all along thought of the option of creating an independent Kurdistan in north Iraq , which has enjoyed autonomy and freedom with the air support provided by the Americans since the first Gulf war.

Autonomy or independence in north Iraq would be fiercely resisted by Turkey.  In spite of promising to Ankara that US would control if not eliminate the impact of guerillas of Marxist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), now nearly 4000 ,ensconced in north Iraq , the Americans have done nothing and perhaps want to use them as a lever against Turkey, if and when the necessity arises .  Turkey is in a real bind. The five year voluntary ceasefire by PKK was not renewed last June and since then there have been regular PKK attacks inside Turkey. In addition, the Kurds in southeast Turkey next to Kurdish Iraq are restive.

Turkey had serious problems with its own Kurds, who form20 % of the population. A rebellion since 1984 against the Turkish state led by Abdullah Ocalan of the PKK cost over37, 000 lives, including   5,000 soldiers. To control and neutralize the rebellion, thousands of Kurdish villages were bombed, destroyed, abandoned or relocated; millions of Kurds were moved to shanty towns in the south and east or migrated westwards. The economy of the region was shattered. With a third of the Turkish army tied up in the southeast, the cost of countering the insurgency at its height amounted to between US$ 6billion to $ 8billion a year.

Throughout history, outsiders have exploited the Kurdish people, who remain divided and spread in Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria.  Kurds of Turkey, who have got many of their grievances resolved are fascinated by the sight of a Kurdish leader Talabani becoming the president of Iraq and Barzani ruling the roost in autonomous Kurdish north Iraq , next door.  Centuries old Kurdish dream of an independent Kurdistan dovetails with US and Israeli contingency plans. The Kurds might come to believe that it is now or a never for them. An independent and united Kurdistan, with the oil wealth of Kirkuk in Iraq could make it an economically viable state.