Of course it will create problems all around and churn in and out the whole region with Turkey, Iran and Syria ganging up to stop such an outcome. Nor would Sunni Arabs and states in the region approve that Kurds of north Iraq have an independent state of their own or be taken over by Turkey.

The other aspect concerns the Sunni Arab populations with tribal afiliations across borders and their governments in the region i.e. Egypt , Saudi Arabia , Syria , Jordan , Yemen and even Gaza and the West bank , who are watching the unfolding of events with great apprehension and trepidation . A government dominated by Shia's in Iraq or an independent Shiia state in south Iraq, along with ruling  Alawaite Shiia elite in Syria and well-entrenched Shiia Hizbullahs  militia in Lebanon would resurrect the dreaded historic Shiia Sunni divide in the region, which erupted in 1979 and pitched the two sides against each other.

But then only Iraq and Iran were the battle fields. Now it could engulf the whole region. While US might chide Damascus for not stopping Sunni resistance fighters entering Iraq from Syria, reports suggest that more are entering Iraq from Saudi Arabia and Jordan. In spite of rigid security control in Jordan, insurgents succeeded in firing rockets at US naval ships in its port of Aqaba.

A "tantalizing end" for the neocons dreams in Iraq;

Let me quote from Michigan University Prof. Juan Cole, who took on of Sunday Times for his 28 August article 'Iraq still offers a tantalizing prospect of successes;

"It should be remembered where the word "tantalizing" came from" wrote Prof Cole . He then lets Odysseus describe a scene in Hades in Homer's Odyssey:

'"I also saw the awful agonies that Tantalus has to bear. The old man was standing in a pool of water which nearly reached his chin, and his thirst drove him to unceasing efforts; but he could never get a drop to drink. For whenever he stooped in his eagerness to lap the water, it disappeared. The pool was swallowed up, and all he saw at his feet was the dark earth, which some mysterious power had parched. Trees spread their foliage high over the pool and dangle fruits above his head—pear-trees and pomegranates, apple-trees with their glossy burden, sweet figs and luxuriant olives. But whenever the old man tried to grasp them in his hands, the wind would toss them up towards the shadowy clouds.

"The American Right playing Tantalus, and Iraq as their punishment in Hades, is a more appropriate comparison than Mr. Sullivan perhaps realized. Tantalus was notorious for ever wanting more, for wanting to be god-like, just as the Bushies think that they are manufacturers of reality and the rest of wretched humanity is clay in their divine hands. It should also be remembered that some say Tantalus was punished by the gods for having invited them to a banquet and having served them food into which the remains of his son, whom he had killed, had been ground up. The warmongers' sacrifice of Americans' children for their aggressive policies is a similar sin.

"Sullivan says that given US and British forces on the ground, the "insurgency" "cannot win." The problem is that the "insurgency" doesn't have to win in order to succeed. All it has to do is spoil everyone else's successes."

"Apart from sabotaging the oil pipelines and the electricity grid that supports them, the guerrillas have reduced Iraqi government revenue by a third to a half of what it otherwise would be. They have put the lives of every senior member of the new government in danger, and have managed to assassinate a whole roster of high-ranking officials, even two members of the new parliament and two members of the constitution drafting committee. They have kept the new government, and even the US military, from truly controlling the major Sunni Arab cities, and have even made mixed cities such as Baqubah big security problems. --  [ or sunni citadel Haditha , 3 hours drive north of Baghdad.]

"These tactics are proving successful and can be maintained for a very long time. At present troop levels, to use Sullivan's phrase, there is no prospect of the United States military defeating the Sunni Arab guerrilla movement. From all accounts, as well, the British military cannot hope effectively to curb the Mahdi Army in Maysan Province, a province in which the political arm of the Sadrists came to power in the January 30 elections.

"This point is important because the Sunni guerrillas' ability to keep Iraq from moving forward-- their ability to act as spoilers-- is a key political asset. -- Sullivan's twin convictions that Bush will not draw down US troops during the next 3 years, and that Democrats will be afraid to run against the Republicans on the Iraq War are both likely [ to be] incorrect."

In my article dated 5 January, 2004 for www. Saag .org , Occupation "case studies of Algeria and Turkey " IRAQI RESISTANCE & WAR FOR INDEPENDENCE", I had written ;

"The Algerian war of independence lasted from 1954 to 1962 , in which almost every family lost a member ; a son, a cousin, a nephew, willingly or unwillingly sacrificed at the alter of freedom, self respect and dignity. After its defeat in World War 1  when the Ottoman empire lay supine under the heels of Allied powers in its capital Istanbul with the Sultan Caliph a captive, the national leadership, led by Mustapha Kemal and his comrades, mostly former Ottoman soldiers, aroused the masses of Anatolia to make yet another supreme effort to expel the Greeks and other occupying powers."

Let us hope that Iraq survives as a nation state and liberates itself. Civil wars and its division and consequent dangerous and ruinous long lasting ramifications are too difficult to even contemplate. Remember how, why and by whom the World Wars were started and how they ended .

(K Gajendra Singh, served as Indian Ambassador to Turkey and Azerbaijan in 1992-96. Prior to that, he served as ambassador toJordan (during the 1990-91 Gulf war), Romania and Senegal . He is currently chairman of the Foundation for Indo-Turkic Studies, in Bucharest . The views expressed here are his own.- He can be reached at: G-Singh@mwcnews.net

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