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Sep 19 2005
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By kgajendra singh   
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Emerging Strategic Nuclear Environment: Iran & North Korea
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It has became clear that if at the forthcoming IAEA board meeting if India did not support the US move , the US Congress would not change its domestic laws to facilitate the sale of civil nuclear energy equipment and technology to India. It was a Republican Congressman from California, Tom Lantos , a member of the India-US Caucus who while supporting the move to sell US nuclear power reactors and technology to India, made it conditional on India showing "a degree of reciprocity", specifically on the US effort to isolate Iran.

What is deeply worrying that Lantos' views were echoed by virtually all members of the House International Relations Committee, cutting across party lines, many members of the India Caucus in the House. If this was how India's friends viewed the Indo-US agreement on nuclear cooperation , what about India baiters.
Was Lantos' outburst “a maverick effort or was it orchestrated by the White House to mount pressure on Delhi, without harming the Teflon coating of shared values and enduring relations that Bush had worked so diligently to create? If it is the latter, then what could India do beyond what it had already done to reassure the US that it shared its goals with respect to Iran, but disagreed on the means adopted? “India had already supported an IAEA's resolution expressing concern over Iran's decision to resume the enrichment of uranium after disabling the IAEA's monitoring systems. Iran has to fulfill its commitments as a signatory of the NPT and announced India's support for the attempts being made by E-3 to find a way to resolve the differences without resorting to coercion.

USA has been openly demanding that India back out of the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project? Finally, there was the nagging worry that if India gives in, Iran will only be the thin end of the wedge of American demands. While George Bush may assure Manmohan Singh that, he stood by their July joint statement of nuclear cooperation and hoped that Congress would give its approval. Apart from danger of becoming almost a lame duck President, the US has a long record of signing agreements and treaties only to have Congress refuse to ratify them later. ”What is most disturbing about the attempt to change the laws governing nuclear sales to India is the way in which the issue had become embroiled in the larger one of constitutional prerogative. When Burns presented the case for a relaxation of existing laws to exempt India, many members of the committee rounded on him for daring to make commitments to India without first consulting the House of Representatives and the Senate. Even if the administration got past the House of Representatives, it still had to face the Senate. “

Indians who look on US strategic relationship with dreamy eyes might look at the state US led West has reduced Pakistan to .India might also look at the fate of USA’s decades old NATO ally Turkey , where both needed and still need each other and  to what extent to rely on USA .A Turkish Deputy Prime Minister told the author , who spent nearly ten years in two tenures as diplomat in Ankara .”Mr. Ambassador , you can not trust the Americans , even on what they give you in writing .”
Pak Israel make up in Turkey;
 
The recent meeting between the Foreign Ministers of Pakistan and Israel in Istanbul with encouragement from Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan could perhaps be the beginning of a far reaching developments-post Hyper power USA ‘s system now exposed at home by Hurricane Katrina while the Iraqi quagmire is deepening. In post US withdrawal scene, in the region there are four middle level major players, Israel, Pakistan, Iran and Turkey, but only Turkey does not have a known nuclear bomb program. USA will have to rely more on Israel , which reportedly has 100 nuclear bombs.
 
It was a year after the US invasion of Iraq that Israeli Prime Minster Ehud Barak  told Vice President Dick Cheney that USA had messed it up in Iraq and had no back up plan either . The fate of the region may not be decided by Turkey ,Israel, Iran and Pakistan but they have a major role to bring in peace and stability to the region and safe guard their interests.
 
In 1995 when Dr AQ Khan visited Ankara, at a reception when I asked the British envoy, if there was a Turkish nuclear program, he retorted what about India's nuclear program. I snapped back ,” why does UK need one.  To use it against North Ireland or Malvinas.” British ambassadors always acted as US poodles and he was clearly not happy to be probed.  How ever ,based on available information , while the Turkish industry is advanced enough to have a Customs Union with Europe Union in 1996, there appear no research centers including its civil research center at Tubitak, unless the military has a covert program. However, Turkey is surrounded by countries having nuclear weapons and wannabe Iran and almost all with missiles .Turkey has no missiles program of it own but is very keen to have one. Turkish Ambassador in Bucharest has no time to answer any queries on this or any other subject!

During his first ever visit to India in 1995, Turkish President Suleyman Demirel, a former engineer himself went around Tata’s Fundamental Research center and the Atomic Energy Research center in Bombay.  On return, he wistfully remarked that “look India has hundreds of nuclear engineers and scientists as does Pakistan (which he visited six times ).  Turkey is economically and militarily a powerful nation and would certainly like to have a nuclear program. It seems to be the only defense currency nowadays .It has seen and suffers from the consequences of USA's unilateral and illegal invasion of Iraq in search of free oil and to control of the region. At this rate, Iraq might be reduced to the rubble level of Afghanistan.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan who met with Iran's president on the sidelines of a U.N. summit on 15 September said that Ahmadinejad assured him that Iran wants to be as transparent as possible and was in touch with the IAEA. Erdogan denied that they talked about transfer of nuclear technology and said Turkey would not accept the offer anyway.

The possession of half a dozen nuclear bombs by North Korea have proved that only Nuclear weapons can protect a poor and small nation and guard its sovereignty. Pakistan , one seventh India’ size because of its nuclear threat continues to blackmail and bully India , in which it  has been encouraged and aided by Anglo-Saxons. It is natural that Iran after mastering the legal Uranium fuel cycle would embark on the Pakistani path and could arrive there eventually.
 
It is therefore time for Turkey to start preparing for the same objective.  If Turkey has a nuclear program or is on the way, Israel will feel less singled out.  While Israel may not provide any assistance, if Pakistan or anyone else helps, Israel with its control over US Congress and decision-making machinery can ease the situation, now for Pakistan and later for Turkey. Already Pakistan is demanding parity with India on nuclear reactors. It will get F-16s or what ever it else wants .
 
It has not dawned on India’s Hindu hardliners , many of whom believe that all Muslims are against Israel and also against Hindus because of Pakistan’s successful propaganda. The Hindu Muslim cleavage was assiduously promoted during the British era and is a colonial legacy. Nevertheless, apart from diplomatic relations with Egypt , Jordan, Mauritania , Israel has relations with Turkey since Israel’s creation by western powers .Israel has an Embassy in Baku and relations with other Turkic republics in Central Asia.
 
Relations can be hostile between Muslim states as can be seen in the Arab world .Nearer India ,let us take majority Sunni Pakistan and Shiia Iran .During 1980s there was a papered over joint front against USSR in Afghanistan, but underneath there were tremendous differences and enmity, which led to open brutal warfare after the withdrawal of the Soviet troops in 1989.Since then Iran and Pakistan supported by Saudi Arabia kept up proxy battles supporting different Mujaheddin groups in Afghanistan till now , while Saudi Arabia and Iran support to Sunni and Shiia extremists in Pakistan.
 
To whatever extent Pakistan and Turkey remain attached to USA and NATO, it is because of Russia lurking in the background .Iran with this oil wealth is now well-placed economically and could become the avant-garde of the East in the progressive confrontation which US led West is mounting , with Russia and China openly backing Iran on the nuclear issue .In the energy sector both China and India need Iran . Nuclear Pakistan‘s relationship with the Russia would remains undefined, while Russia benefits by strengthening Iran.
 
Pak Israel relations;
 
After the Pakistan and Israel  Ministers meeting Istanbul , President Musharraf  accepted an invitation to address an interfaith conference this month organized by the Council for World Jewry when he comes to New York for the UN General Assembly. "It is learnt that covert contacts between representatives of the Jewish state and Pakistan had been going on for several months through diplomatic and informal channels. However, the decisive factor for the first open political contact between the two countries was the Israeli pullout from Gaza last month, which in Pakistan is viewed as a positive move and has been welcomed by the government," Dawn added. Some lame excuse!
 
Relations with Pakistan are important for Israel. Pakistan is one of the most populous Muslim countries, and establishing ties could soften enmity towards the Jewish state in other Muslim countries. Israeli officials also believe that relations with Pakistan could set off a chain reaction in the region, with countries like Indonesia, Malaysia and Bangladesh following suit.
 
Musharraf, a key US ally in the Indian sub-continent, has been gradually moving toward conciliation with Israel, despite strong opposition from powerful Islamic radical parties in Pakistan. But the head of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League said the Arab world would benefit from Pakistan and Israel establishing relations."
 
Pakistan would also benefit by dampening to some extent the emerging close relationship between India and Israel specially supply of crucial military hardware to India.  Ruthless as Israeli's are, which the Indian right wing does not understand, Tel Aviv would exploit its relationship with Pakistan to bargain with India. There have been reports of Pakistan assistance to US interference in Iran .It appears  that any Israeli proposal , reported from time to time , to bomb Pakistan’s nuclear facilities is now off the table , at least for the time being . 



 
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