One reason that it hasn't happened may be because he felt he had more time and he did not have to rush, and he did not feel compelled to do it right away. But I think, from what I learn from Hersh and others, that he is quite determined to do it.  And I am not at all confident that the people in the administration who do perceive this as a monstrous folly, as madness, and who might influence him-- I think we could include Secretary of State Rice or Secretary of Defense Gates, and many high-level military commanders and the Joint Chiefs of Staff—will actually do all they could to stop him, or will succeed in discouraging him.  

There is an interesting analogy here, unfortunately, to the situation under Nixon when both Secretary of Defense Laird and Secretary of State Rogers advised Nixon to get out of Vietnam very quickly in 1969 and after, but Nixon paid no attention to them whatsoever. In fact, he just cut them out of the policy process. And the same thing was true with so-called Iran-Contra scandal:  again, Secretary of State Schultz and Secretary of Defense Weinberger thought what Reagan was doing--selling arms to Iran and breaking various US laws about funding terrorist contras in Nicaragua--was not only crazy but also illegal. They too were simply cut out of the process and they were no longer consulted.  

So in this case I think the Joint Chiefs of Staff, along with the Secretaries, are quite opposed to attacking Iran, but that means that they would resign if Bush ordered it? No, I really don't think so; and I’m not sure it would stop him even if they did, and he replaced them, unless they went very public with their opposition. Will they go public? I would hope they will, for example in testimony to Congress, but I don’t count on it. Will they refuse to carry out his orders? No, I don't think so. Therefore I don’t think Bush necessarily will be constrained by their opposition. If I thought otherwise, I would not think there is a high chance of the attack, because it is after all, as you said, both immoral and insane. 

MWC- My last question, Doctor Ellsberg. Is there a hopeful solution here? Please feel free to give me an idealistic, wishful response. 

DE- An idealistic and wishful solution?  I think that is about all we can aspire to. The state of the world and the state of the United States of America is such that I don't think there is any very likely way of getting out of this. But that isn't to say that events are absolutely determined, because they really never are. No one that I know of foresaw the peaceful ending of the cold war, or the coming down of the Berlin wall, and no one that I know of foresaw the peaceful evolution to change to majority rule in South Africa without major violence. So those were, in effect, political miracles that were unforeseeable. They showed us the uncertainty of the future to anyone. And it's not only uncertainty about how bad it can get but there is uncertainty about what may change for the better.  

What we will need is a surprising, currently unforeseeable change in the orientation of our public, I would say, the values and the awareness of our public, which must then impress these changed aspirations and priorities on Congress and on the administration. I am talking about America here but that is true elsewhere too. 

I wish, by the way that we could count on Europeans, and world publics and leaders elsewhere, all over the world, India, China, Russia, Western Europe, anywhere, to keep us from attacking Iran.  I don't see it happening.  I don’t see them using their influence, whatever influence they have, to prevent this, any more than I see Democrats or Republics in Congress, or major parts of our own public doing this.

So this passivity and very selective or misplaced concern—I am speaking of course not only of Iran and Iraq but, for example, of nuclear threats and global climate change and radical inequalities--has to change if humans are to survive, or more narrowly if civilization is to survive. I think it is possible that we will find a way to survive honorably in that sense; and to keep from extinguishing most other species along with us, i.e. to avoid all-out nuclear war.

I think it is not a large chance. I think the odds are against us, actually. But there is still every reason to try and to do our best. To try to tell the truth and to incorporate values of concern for other humans and other living beings and somehow to transcend the human proclivity to violence and revenge, to secrecy and unquestioning obedience to authority that characterizes so much of human experience.  

So I do think that it is possible, for instance, for people to learn to question authorities and be willing to tell the truth that their authorities do not want those told.  I know that in my own life, I changed in that way, so I know it is possible to change. And, let’s say, to awaken the human potential for compassion and concern about other humans on a global basis.  

At any rate, we have to try, that is the way to live: to act as if we can change the future for the better. To accept that horrible contingencies are inescapable, I think is wrong, we don't know the future and it is not the right way to live. 

Shahram Vahdany- Thank you, Dr. Ellsberg, for both your thoughts and your time.

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