What better than saving humanity from the Iranian nuclear bomb?

The German language has the expression "Flucht nach vorne" - an escape forwards. If you don’t know what to do any more, attack your nearest enemy. Thus Napoleon invaded Russia, followed years later by Hitler. Bush may attack Iran for similar reasons.

I suspect that the decision has already been made and that the preparations are already rolling. There is no proof of that, but Bush behaves as if he has decided on war.

Washington's huge propaganda machine is working full-time to prepare the ground. Anyone who opposes is run over. According to the polls, the American public's support for the war is rising from day to day. The majority is already in favor. The new French president, behaving like a hyperactive schoolboy, has already jumped on the bandwagon and has supplanted Tony Blair as Bush's poodle.

ISRAEL is supposed  to play a central role in this piece.

Here, too, a huge brain-washing machine is already at work. The Foreign Office has joined the effort and has started a world-wide campaign to besmirch Mohammed al-Baradei, the highly respected chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Every day, the obedient media publish reports by correspondents and commentators, who are but thinly disguised spokesmen for the army and the government. They tell us that within a year and a half Iran will already have a nuclear bomb, and that this will be the end of Israel and the world. As the Hebrew expression goes, the remedy must come before the disease. Therefore: Bomb! Bomb! Bomb!

Bush is dreaming again about a war without American casualties. A "surgical" air strike. A hail of "smart" bombs pours down on thousands of Iranian targets - nuclear, governmental, military and civil. What a sweet dream: Iran soon surrenders. The regime of the Ayatollahs collapses. The son of the late Shah takes his place on the throne of his father, who himself was once restored to power by American bayonets.

As I have said in the past, I am not convinced by this scenario. What will actually happen is that Iran will close the strait of Hormuz. Through this strait, named after an ancient Persian deity, flows 20% of the world's oil supplies. It is 270 km long and, at its narrowest, only 35 km wide. A few missiles and mines are enough to close it. That would be tolerable if the war lasted a few days. But if it goes on for weeks and months, it will cause a profound world-wide crisis.

And the war will indeed go on. There will be no escape for the US from committing very large ground forces to conquer first the region bordering on the straits, and then the entire big country. The US has no available ground forces left - even before the American forces in Iraq are exposed to missile attacks from Iran and to guerilla actions from the Shiites, who make up the majority in Iraq.

This will not be a quick and easy war. Iran is different from Iraq. Unlike Iraq, with its various peoples and sects, Iran is comparatively homogenous. This war will be an Iraq war multiplied by 10, perhaps by 100.

And we? How shall we get through this war?

Since the government of Israel and its American allies are pushing with all their political might for the attack, Israel will not be able to avoid contributing to the fighting, if the Americans request it. First our Air Force will be deployed, later land forces may be required.

But Israel itself will also become a battlefield. The pathetic missiles of Saddam Hussein caused, in their time, panic in Tel-Aviv. What will the Iranian missiles do?

The Arab governments will be compelled to support the US, at least with their tongues. But the hearts and souls of the Arab peoples, from Morocco to Iraq, will be with the Iranians defending themselves against the Americans and Israelis. Especially if the Annapolis meeting does end, as expected, without bringing redemption to the Palestinian people.

There is only one way to come out of this in one piece - not to get into it in the first place. But, after all the dismal failures he has suffered in Iraq, in Afghanistan and now in Pakistan - what can persuade Bush to resist the temptation? And how to persuade Ehud Olmert, who longs for a way out of the quagmire he is stuck in?

It has been said that "Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel". For a failed politician, the last refuge is war.

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