The Case of the White Bird

TZIPI LIVNI, as her name indicates, is the white bird of Israeli politics (Tzipi is short for Tzipora, "bird", and Livni comes from Lavan, "white"). As against the hawk Binyamin Netanyahu, the vulture Ehud Barak and the raven Ehud Olmert, she was seen as the immaculate feathered friend.

In public opinion polls, she has enjoyed a remarkable popularity. She trumps all the other politicians in the governing coalition. While the rating of the two Ehuds - Olmert and Barak - was going down, hers was on the way up.

Why? Perhaps it was a case of the wish being the father of the thought. It is generally accepted that in the present Knesset no coalition could be set up without Kadima. Therefore, if one wants to throw Olmert out while avoiding new elections, Olmert's substitute must also come from Kadima. Livni is the only creditable candidate.

Still there is something odd about Livni's popularity. Up to now, she has not been faced with a serious test. She has never borne any real executive responsibility. She has been only a mediocre Minister of Justice.

Her public image is indeed impressive. She seems to be honest, a rare attribute for a politician. She looks wise. She looks courageous.

But anyone who studies her record must regretfully come to the opposite conclusion. Tzipi Livni is far from courageous and far from wise.

That became clear a year ago, after the Second Lebanon War.

It seemed that public anger over the failed war would topple Olmert. Livni jumped at the opportunity. In a dramatic move she called for the resignation of the Prime Minister and offered herself as his successor. It was leaked that soon after the beginning of the war, she had already called for its termination (which did not prevent her from voting for all of Olmert's moves.)

A courageous act, even if not very wise. Because very soon it became clear that public anger was subsiding rapidly. The protest movement petered out. Olmert, with the skin of an elephant and the cunning of a fox, just kept his head down and survived. He shook off the interim report of the Commission of Inquiry (the Winograd Report) as a dog sheds water. The day after the attempted putsch, Livni found herself alone in a political vacuum.

What does a courageous politician do in such a situation? Resign, of course. Join the opposition, exhort, admonish, preach at the gate like the prophets of yore.

But Livni did not do any of this. She just muttered some noncommittal words, folded her arms and remained in the cabinet. Like most of our politicians, she paraphrases Descartes: "I am a minister - ergo I exist."

As a minister, she continues to bear "collective responsibility" for all the acts and defaults of a government headed by the very person she herself has described as incompetent.

So much for courage. As for wisdom: if she was not certain about her ability to unseat Olmert, why did she start this escapade in the first place? And if she was not prepared to resign, why did she play at rebellion?

Olmert could have dismissed her. But he is much too clever. Better to have her in the tent spitting out, than outside spitting in. Since then he has lavished her with praise and paid her compliments at every opportunity. What a successful Foreign Minister! What a wise diplomat!

The last few days showed just how successful a Foreign Minister and how wise a diplomat Tzipi Livni really is.

It began with her appearance in the Foreign and Security Committee of the Knesset. In the distant past, that was a closed forum. But nowadays it resembles a sieve with very large holes indeed. Every word spoken there is leaked even before the speaker has closed his mouth - mostly by the assistants of the speakers themselves.

In this forum, Livni said that the Egyptians were cheating on their commitment to stop the smuggling of arms into the Gaza Strip. She demanded they mend their ways and put an end to this traffic.

It was not just a verbal complaint. It had practical implications: in the US Congress, there is an ongoing campaign to punish Egypt by cutting the huge package of financial aid it gets from the US. True, the Israeli Foreign Office does not associate itself openly with this demand, but everybody in Washington knows that in matters like this, the US Congress is not much more than an instrument of Israeli policy. Members of the Knesset roam the corridors of the Capitol and lobby for the cut. They may belong to the right-wing opposition, but they are clearly acting as emissaries of the Foreign Office.

To reinforce this effort, the Israeli government has distributed a video cassette around Washington showing Egyptian policemen standing passively by while the smuggling goes on under their very noses.

No wonder that Cairo considered Livni's remarks as another exercise of blackmail against Egypt: if you don't comply with our demands, we shall hit you in your most sensitive spot - the pocket.

It is hard to imagine a more foolish policy. Anyone who knows anything about Egypt - and there are such people even in the Foreign Office - would be aware that this is not just about hitting the pocket, but also the heart. Not just a matter of money, but also of pride.

Every year Egypt gets more American money than any other country on earth - except Israel, of course. And not for nothing: it started when Egypt signed the peace agreement with Israel. The enemies of the Egyptian regime call it a bribe for serving Israeli interests.

No country is more sensitive about its honor than Egypt. Its leaders regularly remind everybody - and, indeed, its foreign minister reminded Tzipi Livni this week - that the Egyptian state has existed for 7000 years, and is not prepared to be lectured by Israel (which was not even there 60 years ago.)

Egypt lives in a painful contradiction: it sees itself as the cradle of human civilization and the center of the Arab world, but it is a very poor country and needs every dollar it can get. Hosni Mubarak's regime is totally dependent on the United States, but desperately craves the respect of 70 million Egyptians and hundreds of millions of other Arabs.

That demands subtlety, even finesse. The accumulated experience of thousands of years has prepared the Egyptian diplomats for such a task. They never say "no", but "Yes, quite, but the moment is not appropriate" or "good idea, we shall consider it with utmost seriousness". Those who understand, understand. No wonder that Egyptian diplomats look upon their unsophisticated Israeli counterparts with thinly veiled contempt.