But, even if this analysis looks reasonable, doesn't it suffer from over-simplification?

The most important political event of last week was the resignation of Avigdor Lieberman from the government. His official reason was that he cannot remain in a government that is conducting negotiations about the "core issues" - borders, refugees, Jerusalem and settlements. This may be only a pretext. Lieberman performs convoluted political calculations that a reasonable person cannot follow. But fact is fact. Olmert's new admirers, including Meretz leader Yossi Beilin, assert that the resignation proves that Olmert is serious.

Lieberman is gone, but Shas remains - respond the skeptics. Lieberman's way of thinking may be labyrinthine, but the considerations of Shas are quite plain to see. Shas is now in the situation that every politician dreams about. After Lieberman's secession, the government coalition has only 67 votes in the 120-member Knesset. If the 11 members of Shas secede, too, then Olmert has no government.

Shas is a rightist-nationalist party, and needs a pretext for staying at the governmental trough. They declare that they will leave the moment the government starts talking with the Palestinians about Jerusalem. But in serious negotiations it will be impossible not to do so. The core issues are not separate - a concession on one issue must be answered with a matching concession on another issue. The continued presence of Shas in the government suggests a secret commitment by Olmert not to touch the core issues at all.

Olmert's assistants do their best to put the rightists at ease: there is nothing to worry about. All in all, Olmert intends only to reach a "shelf-agreement" within a year. "Shelf-agreement" is a new political term that means a document which summarizes all the principles of a peace agreement. Its actual implementation will then be postponed until both sides fulfill the basic demands: the "liquidation of the terror infrastructure" on one side and the "evacuation of settlement outposts" on the other. "That will never happen," Olmert's people tell the rightists with a wink.

Either way - when weighting the possibilities, one must also remember that the declarations of a prime minister have a life of their own, whatever their intention. They cannot be returned to the mouth that uttered them. The words are engraved in the collective memory, they change the national consciousness. When Olmert says that the state of Israel is "lost" if a Palestinian state is not established next to it, this is a meaningful milestone.

Like the people on "reality" TV, Olmert's first priority is to survive.

This must be taken into account in trying to guess whether he is serious when he talks our language, or if these are just empty words. Is this a "New Olmert", has Saul indeed turned into Paul, or is this only the old Olmert in a fashionable new disguise? Is it possible that on top of all the tactical considerations, Olmert really wants to imprint his name on history with a great deed?

In the meantime, the situation in the besieged Gaza Strip gets worse and worse. The number of Palestinians killed every day has doubled. The Chief of Staff boasts about it. The Palestinian organizations, on their part, have doubled the number of Qassam rockets launched at Israel, and this time Hamas, too, is officially assuming responsibility. As usual, each side claims that it is only responding to the acts of the other side.

Among the Palestinians killed was Hussam al-Zahar, the son of the former Foreign Minister of the Hamas government. The Shabak security service claims that the father is now the most extreme Hamas leader. If true, this is significant. 16 years ago, al-Zahar demonstrated together with Israeli peace activists against the expulsion of Islamic figures by Yitzhak Rabin. When the exiles returned, he organized the big assembly in Gaza, in which I was invited to speak (in Hebrew) before hundreds of Sheiks, wearing the two-flag emblem - the flag of Israel and the flag of Palestine.

If such a person has become the most extreme leader, this is undoubtedly the fruit of the occupation. It proves again - if proof is needed - that the oppression, which is supposed to destroy Hamas, achieves the exact opposite: it pushes the Palestinian organization into more and more extreme positions. This week, after al-Zahar lost his second son (the oldest was already killed some time ago) he became the most popular leader in the Arab world. Heads of states hastened to call him and extend condolences.

Are these the actions of an Israeli prime minister who wants to achieve peace because he believes that Israel is lost without it?

Back to the beginning: should I be happy or furious when "Olmert sounds like Uri Avnery?"

I remember the words of Rudyard Kipling: "If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken / Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools…" Imitation is said to be the sincerest form of flattery, but it will take implementation to remove the lingering doubt.

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