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Pakistan's Military Rule: Economic Fallout
by C N Anand Food prices have been going through the roof in Pakistan since November, 2007, with many in long queues in front of fair price shops being turned away owing to shortage of flour. At a time when the Rabi crop harvesting in Sindh has started, which should bring down prices, procurement prices are skyrocketing instead. There has been a decline in wheat-sown acreage, fertilizer off take has reduced and 22 % water shortage has been reported for the year ending March, 2008. The Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs have already hit dead levels, and the Rabi crop in the Punjab due for final watering before harvesting, will surely suffer water deficiency. There will be no carry over water in the reservoirs for the Kharrif crop starting in April, 2008. Pakistan will have to import wheat and internationally prices have spiked. Adding to the woes, crude oil prices are touching a new high. During winter months when power consumption is the least, for the first time Pakistan has suffered 10-hour Power outages. 60 % of Pakistan's export earnings are met by textile exports and this sector has been badly hit. 30 % of power generation is met through Hydel power generation and with its major reservoirs hitting dead levels, we can expect a drastic change for the worse in the next few days. With summer approaching, fans and air-conditioners will start getting switched on adding to the power demand, which could well be the last straw. With the army stretched in NWFP and Balochistan and internal security crumbling with suicide bombings almost everyday, what will be the tone of the first address of the PM to the nation? Will he dare to say that he has nothing to offer but blood, sweat and tears in clearing the mess created by Army rule? Will he say, "let us smoke the peace pipe with India and forget about Kashmir and enjoy a peace dividend." Will he bell the cat by saying that the defence budget is getting unbearable? Going by Zardari's latest statement that the army will continue to play a major role, it looks as though the Army will continue to do back seat driving, where foreign policy will be dictated by them. Not one of the politicians dares to question the role played by the Pakistani Army in propping up Musharraf. The core constituency of Musharraf is the army. Disgruntlement can quickly set in when the core constituency's share of roti(bread), kapada(clothing) and makaan(shelter) gets threatened. According to Peter Drucker, the business of business is to stay in business and the Pakistani army is well into business. Its Fauji Foundation rehabilitates ex-servicemen and enjoys monopolistic licence-raj style benefits in running cement, fertilizer, gas, oil terminal & distribution, security services, breakfast cereals, LPG marketing, employment services and steel companies. In addition, retired army officers are given sinecures in public sector undertakings like the Railways, PWD, Postal services etc. The Military Industrial Complex in Pakistan is well integrated, inbred and all encompassing and has its fingers embedded in all nooks and corners. The bulk of the beneficiaries of the Fauji Foundation are officers and not the men. The current snowballing economic crisis does not bode well for the Army's officer cadre. The bulk of the Pakistani soldiers are from the peasant class of rural Punjab. There will be no escaping for the core constituency from the woes that are closing in. The writer's action-thriller, ' Tarbela Damned , Pakistan Tamed', published in July, 2007, fictionalizes the consequences of Tarbela dam failing.
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