UPRISING EAST CLOSES RANKS.

Soon after the collapse of the Soviet Union in early 1990s, when top Turkish leaders like President Turgut Ozal, Prime Minister Suleiman Demirel and others met with the leaders of newly independent Turkic speaking Central Asian Republics (CARs) like Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, they were told by the former Communist party chiefs become Presidents that they would like to follow the Chinese model of economic development with full political control aka dictatorship. Late Alparslan Turkesh, Turkey’s pan-Turk nationalist leader said   that they were inexperienced and needed our help. 

After zigzagging and muddling through for decade and a half, finally Islam Karimov , President of Uzbekistan ,has sought the Chinese embrace and was duly comforted in Beijing which he visited  soon after the violent uprising on 13 May in Uzbek city of Andijan in the Ferghana valley and its brutal suppression .It would be quite some time  before the country recovers from this trauma or the credibility of US led western powers who would have denounced it as another Tiananman massacre but for the US base in south Uzbekistan.

The roots of the current malaise in most CARs lie in the sudden demise of the USSR. Without Moscow's monetary lifeline and control, integrated industry and trade structure, the CARs were plunged into economic chaos. With little experience in running a state, former obedient party members had, implemented policies framed and ordered from Moscow and were not quite up to the task. Self-preservation and stability was achieved through continued communist style repression and new linkages based on extended family, mohalla (neighborhood) and regions.

The de-centralization and sudden cutting of umbilical links with Moscow and each other destroyed much of the agrarian and industrial infrastructure of the entire region impoverishing the masses. However, if the so-called economic shock therapy and globalization were followed, they would have been robbed like Russia by its oligarchs, who transferred hundreds of billions of Russian money to the west .Some, are now in exile.

In the east President of Kyrgyzstan Askar Akaev, Washington’s darling and poster boy till recently , who implemented economic reforms and democracy was ousted last month with blatant support from US embassy ,NGO’s and other US based institutions. Not from the party nomenklatura, he became a victim of his greed and corruption.

In the west Georgia’s President Eduard Shevardnadze , a long time US faithful , was booted out unceremoniously to install new Washington favorite US educated Mikheil Saakashvili with a Dutch wife .He is turning out to be just another autocrat. Ukraine’s new President Viktor Yushchenko married to a former member of the US State department was rewarded for faithfully implementing IMF program while Prime Minister which had impoverished the people and ruined Ukraine’s industry .His task now is to detach Ukraine away , which is umbilical and strategically joined with Russia.( A 3 rd Century BC Indian political adviser Chanakya in Arthashastra i.e. a treatise on how to run a state , devoted a whole chapter on the use of femme fatales to control recalcitrant foreign rulers ) .In Moldova Vladimir Voronin ,nominally a communist was re-elected President on his anti- Russian platform .It is too small a country and marginalized after victory of pro-US Presidents in Ukraine and in Romania.

But Ukraine , where the West –East battle has only been engaged , Georgia and Moldova are Christian nations, but venturing into Muslim Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan was too close for comfort not only for Russia with its large Muslim population , but even China , which has problems with its Muslim Turkic Uighurs in Xingjian province , only 200 kms east of Andijan.

Karimov in China;

Two weeks after the Andijan uprising in a hurried visit to Beijing President Karimov received a red carpet treatment and welcomed as an "old friend," with a long meeting and dinner with Chinese President Hu Jintao. Hu assured Karimov that China "respects the way the Uzbek people choose to develop their country and their efforts in safeguarding national independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity” and “continued cooperation in the fight against Muslim separatists.” Karimov said that Uzbekistan shares China's position against terrorism, separatism and extremism .China also snubbed calls for more pressure on Uzbekistan to accept an international probe on the uprising.

The two Presidents signed a treaty on friendly and cooperative partnership at the start of the 3-day visit, which Karimov described as of "historic significance”. They also witnessed the signing of a dozen agreements to cement bilateral cooperation in the areas of energy, economy, trade and technology. Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing said that the treaty provided a legal basis for the long-term growth of Sino-Uzbek relationship in a stable and comprehensive manner.

China hopes to carry out substantial cooperation in energy sector, mining, telecommunication and infrastructure, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said. "China and Uzbekistan are close neighbors and should take geographical advantage to promote economic cooperation, which is in compliance with the needs of the two countries." China has promised investments amounting to US $ 600 million in Uzbek energy sector .Fast-developing China is keen for access to Uzbek oil, natural gas and other resources.

Chinese fears;

Ding Peihua, a Central Asia expert at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences said that if Uzbekistan were not stable, then it would have a big impact on China’s security situation. It is one of the key hideouts of ethnic Uighur Muslim separatists seeking to create an independent state in Xinjiang .They have close links with Uzbekistan’s Islamic extremist groups .Ding said that some reports had indicated that most of the East Turkestan separatists were in Uzbekistan. It was unclear how much assistance Karimov provided China in the past, but Ding added that Tashkent shared much intelligence with Beijing on separatist groups and activities.