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Page 5 of 5 Role of Afghan Narcotics Trade; Grozin added that behind the uprising ”there were Islamists and criminal elements. Different people and organizations were involved in the unrest. It is no secret in Uzbekistan that the Fergana Valley is the most criminalized region where certain authoritative businesspersons with a shady reputation carry powerful weight — both economically and socially. They have the power to considerably influence public consciousness.  ”The basis of their activities is the narcotics trade. Nevertheless, there is the strict economic regime, many police, many officials, and they have to be bribed. The profitability of drug trafficking falls because of the strictness of the regime and the degree of corruption in it. If the regime slackened, then of course the profitability of the drug trade would increase by several times. It is clear that without a centralized authority, it is easier and economically more favorable to drive caravans though the Fergana Valley to Jalalabad, Osh, and other places. Nevertheless, it would not be right to attribute the rebellion to the drug lords. It is the same thing as saying that the Taliban fought there. The process involved several layers. Different groups of those involved had different aims.
Grozin suggested why the uprising ended so quickly, with so much bloodshed, and so unsuccessfully for those who set it up, because there was no serious organization and no coordination of interests.
In the demonstration that preceded the shooting, there were no demands that Karimov abdicate, or any other political demands. There were social demands, demands for fairness and the release of unjustly convicted members of the Akramia movement.” Konstantin Zatulin, Director, Russian Institute of CIS Countries Studies said that "They used to be America's friends. They allowed Americans to start bases in their [Uzbek] land. They threw the doors open to Western capital. All that made them sure such policies not so much promoted stability as endangered Uzbekistan's ruling regime." Zatulin added: "We Russians see to the root of current Central Asian developments deeper than anyone else. To my mind, it is either wishful thinking or sheer provocation to expect Uzbekistan setting up democracy on the British or US pattern overnight." It is naive to think that, "we could expect a democratic regime to come to Uzbekistan if only Karimov had been behaving like [Askar] Akayev [recently overthrown Kyrgyz president]" The Uzbek decision to grant military base to the US was made in October after the 9/11 attacks when an insistent US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld camped in Tashkent . Karimov obsessed with Islamic militancy in Taliban ruled Afghanistan next door agreed and exploit Islamic terrorism for shoring up his regime. He thought he was buying peace from the West for his highhanded regime. He was not fully wrong as seen from the muted US reaction. US gives hundreds of million of dollars in aid for use of Karshi Hanabad base, where approximately 1,500 US personnel are stationed. The base serves as a major supply facility for the continuing the war in neighboring Afghanistan and for projecting US military power in Central Asia. As Ahmed Rashid wrote after the Kyrgyzstan fiasco , there is little chance of democracy coming to central Asia and the blame must “rest with the United States, Russia and China, which have failed to move the region's regimes closer to democracy “”For the past four years, the Bush administration has embraced the regimes rather than the peoples, as the Pentagon and NATO ran military bases out of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and the CIA sought countries where it could "render" suspected terrorists to be interrogated and tortured in secret by local intelligence agencies” “Uzbekistan is one of at least 10 countries where the CIA has rendered dozens of suspects. Until the revolution in Kyrgyzstan, U.S. diplomats at the State Department had fought a losing battle with the Pentagon and the CIA to adopt a more nuance policy toward the regimes, using U.S. aid to bargain for economic and political reforms.” While Russia is seeking to re-impose Russian influence on its former territory and has military bases in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan , Russian oil companies have a huge stake in Kazakhstan and virtually monopolize Turkmenistan's gas industry. Regimes in Central Asian Republics are quite happy with this. China, has also increased its economic stake in the region, to better control its own restive Muslim population in Xinjiang Province. After the collapse of USSR and the end of the Soviet era, there has been a massive impoverishment of the people in not only in Central Asia but also even in many East European states, with social services like education and health virtually collapsing in some states. Millions from Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan work in Kazakhstan and Russia , where things have improved primarily because of increased oil prices. GDP has been cornered by the ruling elites in East Europe, with more neon light glitter , while impoverished masses suffer. K Gajendra Singh, served as Indian Ambassador to Turkey and Azerbaijan in1992 -96. Prior to that, he served as ambassador to Jordan (during the1990 - 91Gulf war), Romania and Senegal. He is currently chairman of the Foundation for Indo-Turkic Studies, in Bucharest. This article was also published by Saag.org. The views expressed here are his own.- Email- Gajendrak@mwcnews.net" target="_blank">Gajendrak@mwcnews.net Above article was first published at South Asia Analysis Group.
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