Pakistan Getting Dangerous?

In April, the Indian defense forces conducted an exercise in the deserts of Rajasthan. Ominously, in the second week of May, there has been a report of a breach of the cease fire with firing across the Indian border on the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir by the Pakistani Rangers to facilitate infiltration by terrorists.

This was followed by blasts in the busy streets of Jaipur, capital of Rajasthan. Today (19th May), again there has been firing across the LoC, killing one Indian soldier. Considering the dire economic and political straits Pakistan is in, and that the army is a law on to itself, it got me to sit up.  The Pakistani army is stretched and it must be only a flexing its muscles and not a planning a stealthy stab-in-the-back Kargil like operation. But, when the Pakistani army is cornered and piqued, can it come out swinging its nuclear arms? Is something cooking?

In the seventies, during the height of the cold war, I remember reading an action-thriller where the USSR's wheat crop was infected by a fungus threatening to push the Russians over the cliff into dire straits. Understandably, the Russian politburo got panicky and brain-stormed for ideas for a way out. The options they arrived at starkly stared at them. One of the options was launching a preemptive conventional attack on Western Europe with a view to grab the mountains of butter.  They would gamble that USA would not have the stomach to come to the rescue of Europe by unsheathing their nuclear claws.  

There were Americans in the CIA payroll to watch over USSR. One team did find something unusual in the satellite pictures where the hue of some patches in the wheat fields was different from the rest of the field. When they asked spooks embedded deep inside the USSR to investigate, it was confirmed that a rare type of fungus was threatening the wheat crop. A report to higher ups suggested that an accident in the form of the USSR going berserk was waiting to happen. The report was trashed. Soon, USSR's armoured divisions took Europe by surprise. It reminds me of the unrelated later happening of 9/11.

An under developed country striving to become a developing country possessing nuclear weapons, sputtering economically and not getting its political act together, deserves more scrutiny than a developed nuclear armed country. Such a country is Pakistan which is gathering speed going down hill. In the foreground: Since the democratic forces have taken over, consumer item prices have gone up by 25 to 40 per cent. Power shortage has reached unprecedented levels threatening closure of industries. Snowfall this year in the Himalayas has been below average, resulting in a disappointing flow of snow-melt in the Indus, resulting in a shortage of water for the to-be-sown Kharrif wheat crop.

The recently harvested Rabi crop was disappointing. Silting of the major reservoirs is adding to the woes and will force Pakistan to import food grains at a time when world prices have shot through the roof. Crude oil prices are shooting up. The slide in the Pakistani Rupee suggests that a run on the currency is round the corner.  Bickering between Sindh and the Punjab over fair allocation of water is increasing. Law and order is breaking down with cell phones being snatched and cars and motorcycles being hijacked at gunpoint.             

In the back ground: The honeymoon period for the coalition government is over and cracks are appearing over the reinstatement-of-the-judges issue. The second largest party, PML (N), has plucked out nine of its ministers from the coalition. All along, the coalition has been skirting the bread and butter issues. With the budget session nearing, where allocation of scarce resources should occupy center stage of parliamentary debate, everything else except mention of tightening the belt and cutting back on the back breaking defense expenditure is being discussed.

The bruised Pakistani army is smoking the peace pipe with the Taliban in North West Frontier Area and exchanging prisoners. The Al Queda can now carry out unhindered raids into Afghanistan to pin prick American forces. When the die-hards in the Pakistani convince those sitting on the fence to meld with the Taliban, the Al Queda will be presented with a bouquet of WMDs.

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