|
Obama Can Win Without Florida or Ohio
by Ian M Fried
The Seminal There are several articles posted recently that discuss the Obama Electoral Map — What states need to fall into place for Obama to win small, or win big. All of the scenarios assume that Obama wins all of the states that Kerry won — and right now that seems likely, with only New Hampshire and Michigan in any way up for grabs. So lets take that assumption that Obama wins every Kerry state but not Ohio or Florida — what is the path? TPM Election Central has the critical states being Virginia and Colorado. If Obama does not win Ohio or Florida, then he can win by winning Virginia AND Colorado, or either of those states plus add Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada if he wins Virginia, and two of them if he wins Colorado. Missouri is viewed as a tough state but also could substitute for either state in this scenario. What I like about the TPM analysis is that is shows that Obama's electoral map is different, not harder. And when you add the fact that he will probably keep all of the Kerry states, and considering the low approval numbers for Bush specifically and for the Republicans in general, other possibilities open up. Over at Real Clear Politics, staunch Democrat Bob Beckel takes a very optimistic, yet still reasonable, view as to how Obama will win in a blowoutthis November, with a blowout being defined as a victory by more than 50 electoral votes. First he takes on those who believe that McCain has the electoral advantage: The foundation of the McCain "blowout" scenario rests on the 286 electoral votes George Bush received in 2004. It assumes McCain would win New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota - all states won by John Kerry in 2004. I'll concede the possibility of New Hampshire going red this year. John McCain has a unique relationship with the Granite State which has given him two sizable primary victories in 2000 and 2008. But, at best, McCain's chances there are 51-49. Ohio: In 2006, amid rampant Republican state corruption, Ohio elected a Democratic governor and a Democratic senator. Home foreclosures are equally as rampant and Ohio is bleeding good paying jobs daily. Ohio had a massive Democratic primary turnout, which is the strongest predictor of general election results. It has a large college population and 1.38 million blacks of which 300,000 are unregistered. Expect 225,000 new black voters in November. Over 600,000 Ohio residents have turned 18 since 2004. They are registering in record numbers and are overwhelmingly for Obama. For a state Kerry lost by only 117,000 votes, I'd say Ohio leans strongly Obama in 2008. The RCP Average currently has Obama leading McCain in Ohio by 1.8%. Beckel's analysis of new voters in his state-by-state run-down is especially revealing. Chris Cilizza, of the Washington Post's The Fix, has one of his lists that he calls "The Friday Line." In this one he orders states in terms of which ones are most likely to flip from the party they supported in 2004 to the one they will support in November, 2008. Of the 10 states listed, 6 went for Bush in 2004, and the top 4 are all potential flips from the GOP: Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. Cilizza's lists are often more Conventional Wisdom than deeper analysis, but it still shows that Obama is stronger out West than any Democratic candidate was expected to be. So Obama has many potential pick-ups for his campaign. McCain is not expecting to hold all of the Bush states, with Iowa already expected to be conceded to Obama. McCain is looking to pick up Michigan and Pennsylvania, but with the economy in the state it is in, and with new voters favoring Obama, McCain will probably be playing defense as Obama plays offense in electoral calculus. And previous elections have taught us that it is always better to be on offense.
Ian is a Political Analyst living in Washington, DC. He is also Director of the grassroots Blue Catapult PAC which supports Democratic congressional candidates challenging GOP held seats. Ian has been attending the Sundance Film Festival since 1998.
|
This_Category |
|
Category:: Political Views |
Recommend this article...
 Quote this article on your site | Views: 829
Powered by AkoComment Tweaked Special Edition v.1.4.4
Tags: Ian M Fried Obama Florida Ohio
|
Commentary 
