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NASA’s Dr Hansen Pleads for Negative CO2 Emissions Top US climate scientist Dr James Hansen has written a letter to the newly-elected PM of Australia, Mr Kevin Rudd, urging global cessation of net carbon dioxide (CO2) pollution (letter dated 27 March 2008). Before summarizing what Dr Hansen said it is useful to summarize who Dr Hansen is: he is Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and Adjunct Professor at the Columbia University Earth Institute, New York; he is a member of the prestigious US National Academy of Sciences; and he has received numerous awards including the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) 2007 Award for Scientific Freedom and Responsibility (see: HERE ) and the World Wildlife Fund’s Duke of Edinburgh Conservation Medal from Prince Philip. In addition to citing the latest scientific take on the “looming climate crisis” facing the world in a detailed attachment entitled “Fossil Fuel Facts”, Dr Hansen gave the following unequivocal message to Australian PM Rudd: “The conclusion that net carbon emissions must be cut to a fraction of current emissions must be stunning and sobering to policy makers. Yet the science is unambiguous: if we burn most of the fossil fuels, releasing the CO2 to the air, we will assuredly destroy much of the fabric of life on the planet. Achievement of required near-zero net emissions by mid-century implies a track with substantial cuts of emissions by 2020. Aggressive short-term fostering of energy efficiency and climate friendly technologies is imperative for mitigation of the looming climate crisis and optimization of the economic pathway to the eventual clean-energy world.” “Global climate is near critical tipping points that could lead to loss of all summer sea ice in the Arctic with detrimental effects on wildlife, initiation of ice sheet disintegration in West Antarctica and Greenland with progressive, unstoppable global sea level rise, shifting of climatic zones with extermination of many animal and plant species, reduction of freshwater supplies for hundreds of millions of people, and a more intense hydrologic cycle with stronger droughts and forest fires, but also heavier rains and floods, and stronger storms driven by latent heat, including tropical storms, tornados and thunderstorms.” Indeed in a paper written by Dr Hansen and 8 other climate science colleagues variously from the US, France and the UK (see: HERE ) the summary states that “If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that [atmospheric] CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm”. Dr Hansen provided a summary Appendix in his letter to PM Rudd entitled “Basic Fossil Fuel Facts” and I have provided below a Summary of the 6 Figures provided in that Appendix together with the obvious major conclusions from the data [my own additions are in square brackets]. Figure 1 shows that it takes a long time for atmospheric CO2 to be dissipated - even after a century 33% of the CO2 is still in the air and 20% is still in the atmosphere after 1,000 years. Message: CO2 pollution has long-term consequences even after zero emissions is attained i.e. the sooner and better we act the better. Figure 2 has 2 pie charts, (a) showing that of today’s CO2 emissions, 39% come from coal, 42% from oil and 19% from gas and (b) that of the CO2 in the air today 50% has come from coal, 37% from oil and 13% from gas. Message: coal, oil and gas are the overwhelmingly major sources of CO2 pollution and zero emissions means cessation of the burning of these fossil fuels [noting that clean energy substitutes for electricity, heating and transport are technically available now at costs per kilowatt hour (kWh) of electricity of less than the “true cost” of electricity of fossil fuel burning: http://climateemergency.blogspot.com/ ]. Figure 3 summarizes estimates of the world fossil fuel reserves, specifically of oil, gas, coal and other sources (methane hydrates, shale and tar sands). Proven reserves (in Gt or billions of tons of carbon) are about 270 for coal (about 110 already used); 120 for gas (20 used already); 1220 for coal (with 140 used already); and perhaps 1200 for methane hydrates, shale oil and tar sands. Message: Avoiding dangerous atmospheric CO2 levels requires long term curtailing of coal burning, coal being overwhelmingly the greatest future source of CO2 of those sources being currently used. Figure 4(a) is a pie chart showing the breakdown of “2006 World annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions”:19.5% (the US), 19.5% (China), 5.3% (Russia), 4.9% (India), 4.1% (Japan), 2.6% (Germany), 1.9% (the UK), 12.1% (the rest of Europe) and 21.7% (the rest of the World), 3.2 % (Canada and Australia) and 5.2% (ships and air transport). Figure 4(b) is a pie chart showing the breakdown of the “1751-2006 cumulative fossil fuel CO2 emissions”: 27.5% (the US), 8.2% (China), 7.4% (Russia), 6.6% (Germany), 6.0% (the UK), 3.9% (Japan), 2.5% (India), 18.0% (rest of Europe), 3.1% (Canada and Australia) and 4% (ships and air transport). [The 2005 populations of these countries or regions are (in millions): 300.0 (the US), 1,322.3 (China), 141.6 (Russia), 1,096.9 (India), 127.9 (Japan), 82.6 (Germany), 59.6 (the UK), 32.0 (Canada), 20.1 (Australia), 464.0 (rest of Europe), 1,100 (Europe and Overseas Europe), 5,350 (the non-European World), and 6,450 (the whole World)]. Message: Ignoring their ship and air travel contributions, of the countries and regions listed, the major industrial countries listed (including Europe, Japan, India and China) are overwhelmingly responsible for about 78% of “2006 world annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions”; European countries are responsible for 44.6% and Anglo countries (the US, the UK, Canada and Australia) are responsible for 24.5% of annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions [while having only 6.4% of the world’s population; 2005 data].
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