Shaping Middle East Policy to Saudi Wants

Aware of internal antagonisms that threaten the regime, the Saudis have shaped policy to prevent external assistance to dissidents who might topple the regime. The policy tends to counter Shiite power and indicates the delicacy of the Saudi government. The monarchy is most concerned with Iran, Iraq and Lebanon and their Shia populations.

Iran

About two million Shiites, who compose 8% of the population, live in Saudi Arabia. Unfortunate for the Wahhabi clerics, "most Saudi Shiites reside in the oases of Qatif and al-Hasa in the Eastern Province, which is also home to the world's greatest concentration of oil assets and about 90 percent of Saudi Arabia's oil production. Given the extraordinarily tight world oil supply and demand balance, the kingdom's critical role as a swing producer, which enables it to quickly increase output above normal production levels to reduce the risk of an energy shock in the event of a supply disruption, makes conflict between Salafi-Jihadists and Shiites in the oil-rich province a disturbing scenario not only for Saudi Arabia's oil industry, but also for the world economy."

Saudi Arabia's Shiites and their Effect on the Kingdom's Stability, John Solomon, the Jamestown Foundation Terrorism Monitor.

The Saudis fear the Shiite dominated Iranian theocracy will assist the Saudi minority Shiite population to rebellion - and for good reasons - the Shiite minority in Saudi Arabia is greatly repressed, Iran resents the Saudi alliance with the Great Satan, the United States, Iran needs other powerful Shiites to reinforce its authority and Iran senses that Saudi Wahabbism, Saudi royalty and Saudi mal-distribution of oil wealth, betray the beliefs in Islam. Add to the mix, Saudi Arabia's support of Iran's foes; Saddam Hussein during the Iraq-Iran war and the Taliban of the late 1990s, and hostility between the nations is more due to Saudi actions than Iranian actions.

Of course, the United States aggravates the antagonisms between the two Muslim nations. While punishing Iran for pursuing needed nuclear technology, the U.S. administration has offered to assist Saudi Arabia in developing nuclear reactors, training nuclear engineers, and constructing nuclear infrastructure. Saudi fear is a major driving force of U.S. policy towards Iran.

Iraq

U.S. and Saudi policies towards Iraq have tracked each other. Both nations supported Saddam Hussein against Iran in the 1980s, cooperated in the Gulf war against Iraq in the 1990s, remained belligerent towards Saddam Hussein and favored the eventual invasion of Iraq. After realizing that the overthrow of Saddam Hussein allowed a Shiite majority to gain control and another Shiite dominated Iraq government, which could ally itself with Iran, bordered on Saudi Arabia, panic reversed policies. Abruptly, U.S. shifted its alliances to the Iraqi Sunnis, many of whom had been associated with Saddam Hussein. The U.S. is now guided by a Saudi stated policy: "If the U.S. leaves Iraq we will arm Sunni militias."

Lebanon

While the Sunni Saudis vocally attack Shiites, and claim the Shia are "destabilizing the Arab world and are hostile to Sunnis," the Wahabbi leaders continually destabilize the Middle East and remain hostile to all Shia. Unproven accusations that Iran leads Hezbollah into disturbing Lebanon politics are countered by accusations that the Saudis provide support for Sunni Prime Minister Siniora's position. Why the Saudis are concerned with Lebanon and are hostile to Hezbollah, the only Arab group that has successfully confronted Israel, an enemy of the Saudis, is a mystery. The Wahabbis evidently believe that elevating Shia power reduces their power. That belief is shared by al-Qaeda, who also rail against the Shia and are a sworn enemy of Iran.

Ancient Saudi Arabia spurred the growth of the Arab world. Modern Saudi Arabia has left the Arab world. Its self-centered struggle for survival has alienated most of the Arab states, especially Libya and Syria. Contradictory policies make enemies of those who can most assist Saudi Arabia in fighting one of its stated enemies, which is Israel, and make friends with the U.S., whose closest ally is Israel.

Colonial America spurred the growth of political and religious freedom, of democracy and economic liberty. Modern America has betrayed its founding fathers. Its self-centered struggle for obtaining oil has permitted it to contradict its beliefs and excuse the Saudi monarchy's legal, political, social, cultural, economic and moral systems, all of which are anathema to U.S. positions.

The Saudis have defined their freedom - free from western dictates and undue western influence - not what the Bush doctrine envisioned. They serve U.S. interests in the Middle East, by assuring oil supplies. The U.S. serves their interests, mostly in furnishing their weak military with a supporting army that is ready to fight the Saudi battles, from Lebanon to Syria to Iraq and to Iran. Saudi power is shaping other U.S. foreign policy misadventures.

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