A Shiite dominated government in Iraq that suppresses Sunnis will infuriate Saudi extremists. The porous Saudi border (The kingdom mentions building a barrier between the two countries) will become a superhighway for insurgents from Saudi Arabia racing to assist insurgent Sunnis and for Shiites arriving from Iraq in order to foment rebellion in Saudi Arabia. Battle trained Saudi insurgents returning from Iraq become an eventual threat to the kingdom. 

A sectarian government in Iraq increases the probability of a continuous and crushing civil war between the Shiites and Sunnis. The strife could undermine and consume the opposing Islamic states. A stable and non-sectarian Iraq at their borders relieves these states of responsibility to assist opposing factions and limits charges of neglecting brethren from attack.  A non-sectarian government serves as a buffer between Shiite Iran and Wahhabi Saudi Arabia. An added advantage is that a non-sectarian government is more likely to unite Iraq and prevent Kurdish independence. Iran will relish that situation. Stephen Suleyman Schwartz, Executive Director, Center for Islamic Pluralism (CIP) has said it well: “ Saudi King Abdullah, who always favored change in his kingdom, is smart enough to understand, as any common sense individual will, that a fire next door can burn his own house down.”

What should these two antagonists do? What they do might be less important than what they not do. Pacification of Iraq depends upon halting increase of hostilities between Sh’ia and Sunni groups. Iran and Saudi Arabia should make sure they don’t assist any side in promoting civil war. With that known, they can use their influence with ethnic representatives to bring about a reconciliation that favors a non-sectarian government whose direction has no favoritism and no connection with adjacent states.   

Is cooperation between Iran and Saudi Arabia far fetched? Major problems exist between  Iran and the Arab states – territorial disputes, threats of closing the Straits of Hormuz, Arab states’ alliances with the United States, claims that Iran supports a Sh’ia uprising in Bahrain, and the Sh’ia /Sunni divide. Nevertheless, events indicate that Iran and Saudi Arabia are tending to diminish antagonisms and more eagerly cooperating in stabilizing their Middle East.

On March 4, 2007 the Iranian president and Saudi leaders had official talks in which they “pledged to fight the spread of sectarian strife in the Middle East, which was the biggest danger facing the region.” Following this meeting, Iranian President Ahmadinejad, on Oct.4, 2007, highlighted what he has said is the emergence of a "power vacuum in the region,” and indicated Iran's readiness to fill that vacuum, while encouraging cooperation between Iran and Saudi Arabia to achieve that goal. On August 18, 2008, seven Arab countries, including Kuwait, announced their intentions to  reopen their embassies in Baghdad.  The Arab Interim Parliament (AIP), which has been active in addressing Arab Nations’ social and economic affairs, stated on August 25, 2000, “it was examining a proposal to have its chairman hold a dialogue between the Arab and Iranian nations.”

A series of economic agreements between Iran and Gulf State demonstrate a recognized dependence. London-based economic weekly MEED reported on August 3, 2008 that UAE-based Quest Energy and an Iranian company are developing a project to build a 1,000 megawatt power plant in Iran. On August 17, 2008, the Saudi Press Agency reported that “Iran signed a deal to export gas to Oman that could open new export routes well beyond the neighboring Arab state.”

The Sunni/Sh’ia divide shrunk slightly with an arrangement between Hezbollah and Salafists, belligerent foes in Lebanon. Ya Libnan, August 18, 2008, reported that the two sectarian forces signed a memorandum of understanding that briefly: (1) Condemned any Islamic group that assaults another, (2) Abandoned incitement, which creates trouble and allows enemies to take advantage of the situation, and (3) Confronted the American agenda, which creates division.
 
The territorial disputes between Iran and the Gulf states started long before the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Tehran’s independent actions, such as constructing two naval offices on the disputed island of Abu Musa in the eastern Persian Gulf,, has fueled the dispute and angered Gulf State leaders. Nevertheless, many of the world’s adjoining states have territorial disputes that linger for centuries and the antagonists remain friendly.

Gulf States’ anxiety that Iran will try to close the Straits of Hormuz is mainly due to Iran’s previous attempts in the tanker war during the Iran/Iraq war. On the other hand, Iran fears the Gulf States acquiescence of the presence of U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf is an attack on its sovereignty and invites interference with its shipping. Freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf emphasizes the need for cooperation. Removing the U.S. warships will lessen confrontation and reduce fears. 

The Sunni/Sh’ia divide, portrayed as a religious conflict, is actually an economic conflict. Caliphs and Imams who centralized rule of each of the two Muslim sects no longer exist as temporal leaders, and therefore no leadership, other than spiritual Imams, is a focus for a divide. Differences between the two Muslim groups on Mohammad’s succession, Muslim prayer and Koran interpretation incite resentment between Muslim’s extreme religious leaders, but are not sufficiently significant for many of the 1.2 billion Muslims to waste their time and energy in futile battles. A Muslim is defined by adherence to the five pillars of Islam. Both Sunnis and Shiite follow those principals and are therefore ‘fellow’ Muslims.  The masses of Islam are no different than the masses of Protestants who don’t care to whom and how their neighbor prays.

Similar to Northern Ireland, where Irish Catholics protested against their second class citizenship and economic persecution by English Protestants, the deprived Sh’ia minorities (majority in Bahrain) legitimately protest their economic subservience.  Hezbollah has led the venture to equality in Lebanon, and due to their efforts, despite contrary western propaganda, Lebanon is evolving to a more democratic, egalitarian and stable state. Anti-Shiitism is one of the most punishing of the anti-isms and is aggravated by a western world that excuses nefarious policies by its anti-Shiitism. Recognition of the rights of the Sh’ia will diminish the Sunni/Sh’ia divide.

Iran and Saudi Arabia fear that each nation wants to overthrow the other. This type of fear disturbs all authoritarian and sectarian nations that create dissension and then seek scapegoats for their despotism. U.S. military presence in Saudi Arabia and the kingdom’s close relations with U.S. administrations support Iran’s arguments. Arab hostility to Iran occurs from an issue reflected in a recent statement by former Iranian diplomat Adel Al Asadi: “Bahrain had suffered due to Iranian interference in its affairs through various undercover operations, especially the recent disturbances by Bahraini youth.” Bahrain Salafist Member of Parliament Jassim Al Saidi exploited Al Asadi’s words to berate Iran.

Note that Adel Al Asadi is a dissident diplomat who left Iran, and has not had his words verified.  Charges of Iranian interference in other nations usually surface from dissidents and are rarely verified. In contrast, the Bush administration has made bringing democracy and freedom to the Middle East an essential part of its foreign policy program; interpreted as intending to replace the authoritarian regimes.  Bush’s words have not caused alarm or had an effect on policies of Middle East authoritarian nations.

An Iraq that evolves into a non-sectarian and independent democracy initiates a hopeful path to stabilization of the entire Middle East. This task cannot be accomplished before the western world recognizes its role in aggravating the problems of the Middle East. Instead of inciting division and hatred, and juggling Middle East lives to favor their own interests, shouldn’t western agencies and governments encourage an Arabian and Iranian reconciliation?

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