The only route to Middle East peace
by Dan Lieberman

The United States assumes that only western initiatives can resolve Middle East problems, many of which western nations helped to create. In effect, Middle East nations cannot take care of themselves.

Using slogans of democracy, freedom, and nation building as the path to peace and stability, the U.S. in the last ten years has brought neither peace nor stability to the lands between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean.  Guided by encouraging words rather than meaningful deeds, the U.S. has deceived itself with illogical maneuvers, hypocritical behavior and contemptuous meddling in the Arab world. Smug attitude and self-interest prevents a Bush administration from realizing that invigorated Middle East nations can stabilize themselves.  The present inward looking U.S. administration would never contemplate that Iran and Saudi Arabia could lead the advance.

What! Iran and Saudi Arabia, two implacable foes and authoritarian nations governed by Islamic law, are going to cooperate and lead their fellow Middle East neighbors to a long desired exit from turmoil and solidify their presence as progressive forces in a family of nations?  Maybe not entirely; maybe only a cool meeting of minds rather than warm embraces. But why not, if this rash route for achieving peace and stability might be the only possible approach for accomplishing the extraordinary mission, and if the lack of its occurrence presages a destructive conflict between the two opposing Islamic nations? Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and King Abdullah must comprehend that they are being drawn into a clash and should preferably get together before they pull themselves apart.

The Arab nations of the Middle East realize that the U.S. will secure the monarchies as long as these governments protect U.S. interests – until now. U.S. failure to protect its interests in Iraq portends an eventual failure to secure the Middle East governments against internal and external conflicts.  Middle East stability dictates reconciliation between the Arab world and Iran, between Sunnis and Shiites, and specifically between Saudi Arabia and Iran.  By cooperation, Iran and Saudi Arabia can stabilize and democratize Iraq. This does not mean that the two authoritarian nations should be excused for suppression of internal democratic movements and be able to avoid responsibility towards their own peoples. Nor does it mean that their accord should be allowed to prompt an arrangement that subverts other nations or constructs an anti-American coalition.  It only means that, by peculiarities of international politics, these nations happen to have significant power to resolve a crushing situation.

The world should be aware of this unique power and use it to advantage.  Trace the situation. It methodically leads from U.S. failures, which predict a U.S. loss of influence, which Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad claims will create a political vacuum, which is filled by oil rich Iran and very oil rich Saudi Arabia, which merits a repair of the Sunni and Sh’ia divide and which leads to Middle East peace and stability. Start with the factors that produced a U.S. loss of influence.  

Illogical Maneuvers – The U.S. military overthrow of Saddam Hussein removed a countervailing force to Iran and expanded the Islamic Republic’s power and influence. The U.S. participation in an ongoing civil war in Iraq, its cooperation with Israel in the latter’s conflict with Lebanon, the continuous and ineffective saber rattling against Iran, and inability to resolve the Israel/Palestinian conflict have lowered U.S. prestige to that of a barely tolerated benefactor.  

Hypocrisy – Support of autocratic monarchies in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf State nations has strengthened these regimes and delayed them from extending sufficient freedoms to their populations, including Sh'ia. The latter ethnicity is important because U.S. proclamations of freedom of religion and minority rights, except for Iraq, are rarely applied to the Sh'ia – just the opposite - the victimized and mostly powerless Sh'ia, who have been attacked by Sunnis from India to Saudi Arabia, are constantly portrayed as aggressive, terrorist prone and always ready to seize control. This depiction disguises government corruption, reinforces Sunni domination and exaggerates a Sunni/Sh'ia divide that seeks amelioration.

The U.S. has never recognized that the Shiites, who are an overwhelming majority in Bahrain (55-70%), have only five of 22 cabinet positions, 8% of total governmental posts, and 18 appointed (by the King) members of 40 in a Shura council. 

Although a more positive trend is occurring, the desert kingdom has discriminated against its Sh’ia minority (5-10%).  A 2001 Human Rights Watch Report:

Contemptuous Meddling

The U.S. has taken several initiatives to resolve problems of Middle East nations.  From Dwight Eisenhower to George W. Bush, U.S. presidents have sent the U.S. marines to Lebanon and naval armadas to the Persian Gulf in order to “solve” Middle East problems. Iraq has been attacked on two occasions.

After all these military adventures, the Middle East remains with its problems and seems ready to explode.  By this time, Arab leaders must recognize that the U.S. cannot solve their problems and can exacerbate them.  Consider Iraq.

U.S. involvement in resolving an Iraq crisis that it created gives an appearance of providing a solution that favors U.S. interests, and structuring Iraq as a vassal of the U.S.  Imagine the feelings of the Arab leaders who contemplate an Iraq allied with the U.S., a nation allied with Israel, and the three nations forming a dynamic combination that can dominate the entire Middle East – a neo-con victory over the Arab world.

Iran and Saudi Arabia border on Iraq and are nations most affected by an unstable and insurgent Iraq.  Self-interest forces Iran and Saudi Arabia to frame the future of Iraq.  History shows that the former nation fears a Sunni dominated government at its border, and for good reasons; these include a possible reawakening of former disputes between Iraq and Iran that led to war, an adjacent space for Iranian dissidents to operate, and the natural tendency to co-opt Iran into Iraq’s ethnic disputes in order to protect the Sh’ia. 

Similar to Iran, Saudi Arabia fears a Shiite dominated Iraqi government.  Despite insufficient proof, the Saudi monarchy has been accused of assisting elements of the Sunni insurgents in their battles against the sectarian Iraq government and has been quoted as pledging support for Sunni militias who defend themselves against Shiite militias. Jordan’s King Abdullah has pledged support against what he views as an attempt to establish Shiite dominance from Iran to Lebanon.