The Spread

Under the current Republican administration the American economy has lost $10.5 trillion in the last year. That’s TEN trillion with a “T” in net worth. This is the largest drop in wealth ever, greater than the Great Depression. The war in Iraq is no longer supported by 85% of Americans. The stock market is down 50% from a year ago. Home prices have fallen 15 – 50% in all the major real estate markets around the country. Many people’s life savings have been wiped-out. Yet, the Democratic Presidential ticket, under Sen. Barack Obama’s leadership is clinging to a mere 6-point lead in the national polls.  
 
How can this be? Why?  
 
With the terrible economic conditions this country is in, and an unpopular war, the Democratic ticket should be 20+ points ahead in the polls!  
 
But they are not.  
 
The reason is the 18-point spread - or what I call the B&B skew. B&B refers to the failed campaigns of Sen. Brooks and Mr. Bradley. Each had overwhelming leads in the polls, only to lose their elections by double and single digits respectively. The spread in each case was 18 points. Mr. Obama should win the election by this spread and more but will not. The only way to reasonably expect the Democratic ticket to win the presidential election, based on the history of a black American running in a majority white voter base, is if he is leading by GREATER than 18 points in the polls before Election Day. Otherwise, Senators Obama and Biden will not win the presidential election.  
 
They instinctively know this. This is why they are taking nothing for granted and spending every dime they have on advertising. However, the lead they need in the polls before the election, to reasonably expect victory on Election Day, has not materialized. They have not even been able to secure a lead of at least HALF the points needed or a 9-point lead in the polls. They know they are going to lose. They are not going to change the true nature of this electorate no matter how hard they try or how much money they throw at this intractable problem.  
 
Senator’s Obama’s “Quixotic Quest” to change the legacy left by de jure segregation and the resulting de facto segregation, has not been eliminated in America. Not now, not in this time, perhaps never. His defeat will serve as a paradoxical reminder and political lesson for future black candidates in what America was, and more importantly, what America is.

Guest