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Pondering the Future of the Republican Party
by Jim Moss Time for a little joke: Name 3 things that the Republican Party and the Electoral College have in common. (1) They both got started a long time ago for excellent reasons. (2) They both have outlived their usefulness. (3) They’ll both have a lot of free time until the next election.  Things are lookig pretty grim for the GOP. Just eight years ago, the Republicans completed their “revolution” and enjoyed control of the White House, the Senate, the House of Representatives, and the Supreme Court. It was the beginning, we were told, of a glorious run that might have no end. Amazingly, though, we are now looking at almost the exact opposite scenario. Assuming an Obama victory, come January the Democrats will be just a couple of timely Supreme Court openings away from power across the board. Will the Democrats become victims of their own success, as the Republicans did, or will their reign be longer and more productive? Only time will tell. But perhaps the more fascinating question is, what will become of the GOP if McCain loses and loses big? The party leadership will be in shambles, and the ideological divisions between the Romneys and the Palins will only deepen. I see four likely scenarios for the long-term effects of this split: (much of this, mind you, is tongue-in-cheek) 1) The Republicans will do what the Democrats have done: Regroup, rebuild, and hope that a transformational young leader will emerge to craft a new party vision that can challenge incumbents in 2012 or 2016. (Sorry, Palin. It’s not you!) 2) The Republicans will fracture. Many will help start a new party that will look like a business-friendly libertarianism and will be hailed as a return to true conservatism. Others will opt for a doomed-to-fail ultra-conservative/fundamentalist party that will cling to issues like abortion, gay marriage, and evolution. (Palin will be their first nominee). 3) Much the same as #2, except that the more moderate Republicans, wanting to hitch their wagon to a winner, will move toward the Democrats and Obama’s uniting leadership style. Eventually, though, the tent won’t be big enough, and the Democrats will split into left and right wings that become the two new major parties. (Harold Ford will lead the right wing.) The Palin Republicans will be a vocal third party that occasionally wins a red state from the deep south or the midwest. 4) It will all be just a repeat of the 1990’s. The bitter Republicans minority will reunite under the banner of stifling Democratic reform. With renewed confidence, they will rally and take back at least one house of Congress in 2010. The Republicans will gradually rebuild their base throughout Obama’s two terms, and thanks to a scandal or some sort of crisis, they sweep back to power in 2016 - with the former governor of a large southern state whose last name will sound painfully familiar. Which of these possibilities for the future of the Republican Party do you think is most plausible? Jim Moss is a Presbyterian minister from York, South Carolina. He publishes a blog and a quarterly newsletter called "Discipline for Justice," which focuses on ways North Americans can live lives that promote peace and economic justice.
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