Rumors that Ahmadinejad was seriously ill have been popping up on some Iranian Web sites affiliated with the president’s opponents for several months. A cleric who supports him, Ayatollah Abolqasem Khazali, had even warned Ahmadinejad that his work habits could lead to hospitalization.

But a flurry of new rumors appeared after Ahmadinejad, who turns 53 on Monday, canceled a speech on Wednesday and did not attend a Cabinet meeting the same day.

Ahmadinejad did attend a religious ceremony on Saturday in Tehran, though he looked tired as he greeted supporters. State TV also showed him receiving credentials of three foreign ambassadors on Sunday.

”Thank God, I do not have an illness. Exhaustion is possible, but no illness,” Ahmadinejad told a reporter on the sidelines of a meeting in Tehran. The footage was aired on state television Sunday night.

”Of course, we are also human beings, and sometimes we catch a cold,” he said.

Earlier, Kowsari, an ally of the president, said the strain of his job had made Ahmadinejad sick, according to the state-run news agency, IRNA. But he downplayed the seriousness of Ahmadinejad’s fatigue.

”The president will eventually get better and continue working,” said Kowsari, who accompanied Ahmadinejad last month to the U.N. General Assembly. ”Every human being can face exhaustion under such a workload.”

Ahmadinejad, who is known for working long hours and getting little sleep, has low blood pressure and has gone to the hospital occasionally to seek treatment, said Mohammad Hossein Saffar Harandi, the Iranian Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance.

”Even if you are immortal, you will suffer from working so much. … That is what has happened several times to Mr. President over the last few years. However, he is up and about and fresher than us right now,” he told reporters Sunday.

Ahmadinejad has grown increasingly unpopular in Iran, even among some conservatives who say his policies have not done enough to help the ailing economy. In recent weeks, some supporters of Ahmadinejad have been discussing potential candidates for the June 2009 election, implying that the sitting president is not their automatic choice.

Earlier this month, a prominent conservative analyst Amir Mohebian said conservatives now consider ”going beyond Ahmadinejad a wise possibility.”

The maths is simple. For every dollar on the price of a barrel of oil, Iran earns approximately a billion dollars a year.

In the past few weeks and months, the price of Iranian oil has dropped between $50 and $60 a barrel.

The head of the Central Bank of Iran has warned that revenues could be cut by $54bn, effectively halving the country’s income from oil, which accounts for the vast majority of both its export earnings and government revenue.

Petropars, a subsidiary of the National Iranian Oil Company (NOIC), has even warned that it could go into bankruptcy.

As the effect of those lower oil prices works through, Iran will face a growing budget deficit. The International Monetary Fund said in August that Iran would face unsustainable deficits should prices for its oil fall below $75 a barrel.

Mr Ahmadinejad will have the choice of cutting spending or printing more money. But with inflation already over 25% and unemployment around 10%, neither is an attractive option.

The real trouble for the president is that the crunch will probably come just a couple of months before he stands for re-election in June next year.

[snip]

Ideally, Iran would like to see oil back at $100. The realists here know their best hope is probably to keep prices steady, between $70 and $80 a barrel.

The question everyone in the know in Iran keeps asking is: what is the magic number? What price oil does Iran need to keep afloat?

Whatever the precise answer, it is looking increasingly likely that President Ahmadinejad’s luck has finally run out.

Alex Thurston is currently a student in the Master's Program of Arab Studies at Georgetown University. He graduated from Northwestern University in 2005 with a BA in Religion and spent the winter of 05-06 working at various jobs around Chicago, including at the notorious 1000 Liquors. In 2006-2007, he lived in Senegal as part of the Fulbright exchange program and studied Muslim youth movements in the capital city, Dakar. His interests (other than politics and religion) include hip hop and literature. He can be reached at alex[at]theseminal.com.