The Al Qaeda world view

Throughout its colonial era to protect its interests the British encouraged Islam and its extremist strains to divide and browbeat national and socialist movements in Asia .Middle East and elsewhere .London encouraged and helped Jinnah in his dream of Pakistan , so that a weak  Pakistan in alliance would keep the Russians away from the oil wells in the Gulf region dominated by the Europeans . This policy was appropriated by the new leading western power USA after WWII. Thus the creation of the monster of Islamic fundamentalism was a natural Western gambit to tire out and unravel USSR. Supporting the Jihad in Afghanistan was a Faustian pact between the Christian Crusaders led by America and Muslim Wahibis/Salafis .

After the Soviet Union collapse , the Islamic fanatics , believing they had defeated the super power USSR , put into operation their plans against US led Christian Satan . It included firstly to expel US troops from the sacred soil of Arabia , then remove non Salafi rulers from Muslim Ummah such as in Egypt and others , even Saudi Arabia and liberate Muslims from non-Muslim yoke in India and finally create Islamic Caliphates ruled by religious tenets as perceived by them e.g. Taliban rule in Afghanistan up to 2001 and in Swat now .This Jihad against USA began with attacks on US diplomatic missions in east Africa , inside USA and finally culminated in the 119 stunning attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, symbols of US economic and military might.

We will not go into the suspicions that US organized 119 or let it happen .But Washington now went in to implement Neo-con driven agenda of making US the hyper power brooking no resistance .It first bombed Afghanistan to acquire bases there and in nearby Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan ostensibly for its war on Taliban and Al Qaeda , but to occupy Russia’s strategic underbelly .Still driven by hubris and backed by Tony Blair’s UK ,USA then invaded Iraq against the UN charter and the wishes of majority of its members on the basis of allegations which appeared even then to be cooked up to any intelligent observer . But Washington needed Islamabad to protect itself from a backlash of its earlier Afghan policies of creating the monster of terrorism and acquire bases in Pakistan and support from an unwilling ally in Islamabad .US threatened to bomb Pakistan to middle ages if Islamabad did not comply with its fireman , written and publicly aired by Pakistan ruler Gen Parvez Musharraf as also narrated in his autobiography .( By 2006 Gen Musharraf knew his rule was to end and as per US custom , a new proxy ruler would be installed in Islamabad and after Benazir’s assassination her widower Asaf Ali Zardari took over.)

After 11 September, Washington also desperately wanted to stop Pakistan's nuclear bombs or material from falling into Jihadi hands. US spokesmen have stated from time to time that Pak nukes are in safe custody. But according to one version ,Gen Musharraf , realized that the nukes were Pakistan’s crown jewels , a leverage against Indian conventional military superiority and a handle to threaten and black mail one and all .It was the only positive outcome of  Islamabad being exploited for West’s war in Afghanistan which resulted in the spread of narcotics use and Kalashnikov culture in Pakistan. It is said that parts of the nuke systems were removed to Chitral near the Chinese border and if threatened , Chinese troops across the border would move in and take them away. Who knows the truth !

Military in Politics in Pakistan and Turkey

Military has been a major force both in Pakistan and Turkey .I have kept an eye on Turkey since 40 years , with ten years spent in Ankara in two diplomatic tenures .An Indian diplomat has to live with and understand Pakistan , an anti-India profession created by the perfidious Albion. Situated east and west of Iran, now in opposition to the policies of yesterday’s  declining hyper power USA,  Pakistan and Turkey, Washington’s non- NATO and NATO allies respectively , are undergoing fundamental changes which would have ramifications not only for the region but alter the world’s political and strategic calculus. Especially in Pakistan .  If Turkey is situated at the crossroads of a Europe, Central Asia, Middle East and Africa, and influenced by the cross currents ,then Pakistan connects South Asia to Central Asia and Middle East, and central Asia and  China to the energy rich Middle East in the Gulf waters.
 
Unlike civilian controlled armed forces in conventional democracies ,in both these countries the military’s role is embedded in the polity with dominance in decision making.  In Turkey the military under the leadership of Kemal Ataturk, first fought a dogged war to protect the nation against Western led invasion and occupation after the collapse of the Ottoman empire and then helped create a secular republic after abolishing the office of the Sultan and the Caliphate in 1923 .

Musharraf’s Turkish connection and Ataturk as a model

At his very first press conference soon after taking over in October ,1999 as Pakistan's chief executive , General Musharraf spotted some journalists from Turkey. Speaking in fluent Turkish, Musharraf told them that he was a great admirer of Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the Turkish Republic and its first president.  "As a model, Kemal Ataturk did a great deal for Turkey. I have his biography. We will see what I can do for Pakistan. " Not only is he more at home with Turkish than Pakistan's national language, Urdu, Musharraf also admires Turkey's generals and the country's political model, having spent his most impressionable school years in   early 1950s in Ankara, where his father was posted as a junior diplomat.  Ataturk's legend of forging a new, vibrant, modern and secular Turkey out of the ashes of the decaying deadwood of the Ottoman Empire left an indelible mark on young Pervez, as evidenced by his remarks above and his subsequent actions as the leader of Pakistan.

However, following his statements lauding Ataturk, the Jamaat-i-Islami, the largest of Pakistan's religious parties, immediately expressed its opposition to the secular ideology of Kemalism. As a result, Musharraf then also highlighted the aborted vision for Pakistan of Qaid-e-Azam Mohammed Ali Jinnah, the country's founding father and its first leader after independence in 1947.

At best Musharraf can be said to have succeeded in emulating his publicly undeclared model Gen Evren and that too not that well . There are some similarities with Ataturk.  Delhi-born Musharraf's family comes from east Uttar Pradesh (India). Blue-eyed Ataturk was born in Salonika (Greece) and his family came from Macedonia.  Ataturk was able to rally the world war-weary Turks, whose land had been occupied by foreigners.  At first he battled the Ottoman Sultan's forces sent to kill him and then vanquished friend turned foe rebel Ethem and his ragtag Green army, which had helped fight off invading Greeks who had almost reached Ankara. This was something like the various jihadi forces and foot-loose groups that Musharraf faced. However, Ataturk ruthlessly crushed religious revolts led by feudal Kurdish tribal chiefs and others.  And to fulfill his destiny, he even got rid of his earlier nationalist comrades, who were in favor of continuing with the Caliphate. 

Musharraf, too, succeeded in sidelining many unreliable generals but not completely. Despite his belief in his avowed destiny, his proclaimed good luck in escaping many mishaps, he did not show the boldness and ruthlessness of Ataturk.  September 11 and December 13 , provided him with a golden opportunity to go the whole hog in the fight against the virus of fundamentalism and usher a new era in Pakistan on the lines of Ataturk’s reforms.  He would have got unstinted support from US led West, India and others.
  
Ataturk had boldly and ruthlessly carried out westernizing and modernizing reforms against religious obscurantism and dogma and forged the remnants of the Ottoman Empire with a 99 percent Muslim population into a secular republic in the 1920s.  But he had kept his external ambitions in check, he did not claim former Ottoman provinces lost in World War I, and had concentrated on building a new Turkey from the bottom up. 

Musharraf, a child of his times, had to step down, after September 11, from the fundamentalist tiger he was riding and had helped nurture. But he was not fully in command on the home front, with attempts to assassinate him and suicide bombers having a run of the country .( They are now only 100 k.m. away from Islamabad ). He did tighten up from time to time, with some arrests of ranking Al-Qaeda members and others to please USA. But Musharraf's  childhood Ataturk-inspired dream was not realized. Perhaps he is not ruthless enough, determined and single minded like Ataturk.

Some people say that Musharraf did make some attempts ,including beginning a dialogue with India, which made considerable progress . Maybe there were just too many cards stacked against him external and internal .By 2006 he realized that his time was up so he wrote his biography and soon enough there was pressure from USA and internally, encouraged by outside powers for a change of regime in Pakistan. USA favored Benazir Bhutto , while another financier Saudi Arabia’s choice was Nawaz Sharif , but with luck with some maneuvering , the crown now sits on Zardari head .

Conclusion;

The future of Pak Af depends on how Afghanistan shapes up which has been divided since 1980s. The kingdom was created in the 19th century at the end of the Great Game as a buffer to keep the Russian and British empires from getting onto each others corns .In spite of many attempts ,the British had failed to subdue the Afghan tribes and had got a bloody nose in the bargain.

Since then the two empires , the British in South Asia and the Russian/Soviet in central Asia have disappeared and divided .Thus the raison d’être of the Kingdom remaining united has disappeared. The break up of Afghanistan composed of warring Pashtuns ,Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras and others would create pressures on the already eroded Durand line , whose so called British enforced legality ended in 1993. Dominated by Punjabi speaking elite with leavening of Pashtuns , Pakistan has remained feudal in social makeup and has failed to create even a territory based national identity . The most dangerous possibility is a stand off and war between the Jihadist/terrorists and the Military with Punjabi- Pathan mix with the latter’s unity being unraveled ,unraveling the state itself.

West may not mind the break up of Afghanistan and even of Pakistan if the new states are beholden to it and help neutralize the Chinese objectives of  direct land access from west China via Pakistan to the Gulf .This explains Chinese investments in Baluchistan and its Gwadar port ,next door to the Gulf of Hormuz ,the Middle East energy exit point. However the likely economic collapse of UK and USA weakens their hand . Russia, China, Iran , Saudi Arabia and India would play more important role than the 2002 agreement in shaping what happens in Afghanistan. But finally it is the people of the lands who would be the deciders.

What happens in Afghanistan and Pakistan will have serious ramifications for India too. The current Indian dispensation remains too beholden to Washington and has not kept up with Moscow and annoyed Tehran . At the moment the political elite is engrossed in the election exercise to renew its license to go back to its selfish ways .The public remains glued to Indian Premier League telecasts from South Africa where it is being played since the League and the elections would have strained the security setup in India , so brutally exposed of its ineffectiveness by 26 /11 rape of Mumbai .

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