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 Pre-Election Independent Poll Results
Ken Ballen is president of Terror Free Tomorrow: the Center for Public Opinion, a nonprofit institute that researches attitudes toward extremism. Patrick Doherty is deputy director of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation Washington-based think tank chaired by Google CEO Eric Schmidt. On June 15 in the Washington Post, they reported the results of their May 11 - 20 poll based on 1001 nationwide Iranian voter interviews (in all 30 provinces) with a 3.1% margin of error. While Western media reported a surge for Mousavi, the results showed Ahmadinejad way ahead. "The breadth of Ahmadinejad's support was apparent in our preelection survey. During the campaign, for instance, Mousavi emphasized his identity as an Azeri, (Iran's second largest ethnic group after Persians), to woo Azeri voters." Yet poll results showed they favored Ahmadinejad 2 - 1. Also, 18 - 24 year-olds strongly supported Ahmadinejad while Mousavi scored well only among university students and graduates and Iran's "highest-income" earners. The writers concluded "the possibility that the vote (was) not the product of widespread fraud" but reflected the electorate's true choice. They also said: "Before other countries, including the United States, jump to the conclusion that the Iranian presidential elections were fraudulent, with the grave consequences such charges could bring, they should consider all independent information. The fact may simply be that the reelection of President Ahmadinejad is what the Iranian people wanted." Nonetheless, Washington may be capitalizing on a pretext to stir trouble with large protests continuing for days. Obama hinted it in a June 12 statement several hours before polls closed by saying: "....just as has been true in Lebanon, what can be true in Iran as well is that you're seeing people looking for new possibilities" - perhaps aided by covert CIA mischief, comparable to earlier decades of subversion, beginning in Iran in 1953. America's Post-WW II Meddling in Iran Before becoming Prime Minister in 1951, Mohammed Mossadegh served in parliament beginning in 1944 and also worked with other members of the National Front of Iran (Jebhe Melli) to establish democracy, free of foreign influence, especially with regard to oil. In December 1944, he introduced a bill to bar foreign country oil negotiations, yet Britain retained control through its Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (AIOC) at a time Iran's southern region had the world's largest known reserves. In late 1947, the government demanded a greater revenue share but Britain refused. In 1951, one month before Mossadegh became Prime Minister, Iran's parliament nationalized the AIOC and paid fair compensation for it. Economic sanctions and an oil embargo followed. Iranian assets were also frozen in British banks. Major Anglo-America oil interests supported London, while a CIA coup aimed to oust Mossadegh. Conceived by Theodore Roosevelt's grandson Kermit, it took two attempts to succeed, and began each time by filling the streets with protesters against a leader The New York Times called "the most popular politician in the country." Nonetheless, a military showdown followed against pro-Mossadegh officers with each side staking their careers on choosing the winning one. Mossadegh was ousted. Reza Shah Pahlavi returned to power. Sanctions were lifted, and America and Britain regained their client state until February 1979 when the same Anglo-American interests turned on the Shah and deposed him. F. William Engdahl explained it in his important book, "A Century of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order." In 1978, a White House Iran task force recommended ousting the Shah and replacing him with Ayatollah Khomeini, then living in France. It was part of a larger scheme to balkanize the Middle East along tribal and religious lines and create an "Arc of Crisis" from Central Asia to the Soviet Union. Doing it in 1978 became urgent at a time the Shah was negotiating a 25-year oil agreement with British Petroleum (BP), but talks broke down in October. BP demanded exclusive rights to future output but refused to guarantee oil purchases. The Shah balked and looked for new buyers in continental Europe and elsewhere. He also sought to create a modern energy infrastructure built around nuclear power generation to transform the region's power needs. He envisioned 20 new reactors by 1995, wanted to diversity Iran's dependence on oil to weaken Washington's pressure to recycle petrodollars, and also increase investments in leading continental European companies. Washington was alarmed, tried to block the plan but failed, and resorted instead to destabilization, starting with cutting Iranian purchases. Economic pressures and oil strikes followed along with US and UK agitators fanning religious discontent and other turmoil. The Carter administration urged Iran's Savak secret police to crack down as a way to arouse anti-Shah sentiment. Western media highlighted it, gave Khomeini a public stage to speak and prevented the Shah from responding. In January 1979, things came to a head. The Shah fled the country, Khomeini returned, and proclaimed a theocratic state. By May, he cancelled Iran's nuclear plans. America thought it could control him and his nation's oil but calculated wrongly. Tensions built, thirty years later they continue, and post-June 12 they may again be coming to a boil. Iranian Street Protests and Their Ominous Possibilities Leading up to and after the Iranian election, The New York Times played its customary role as lead media gatekeeper/instigator doing what it does best - sanitizing news, filtering out uncomfortable truths, and presenting distorted opinions for the powerful interests it represents. Roger Cohen's June 17 op-ed said 40 million Iranian "votes (were) flouted," many of whom "have crossed over from reluctant acquiescence to the Islamic Republic into opposition. (The Republic) has lost legitimacy. It is fissured. It will not be the same again." Does he know something we don't? He called Mousavi "the reformist of impeccable revolutionary credentials." He's "a credible vehicle for a reform regime that serves to preserve it - an acceptable compromise to most Iranians." No matter that most of them apparently preferred Ahmadinejad, an outcome neither Cohen nor the Times accepts, or perhaps they and Washington do to be able to use his victory to incite trouble. On June 17, The Times' feature story highlighted "Iranians angry at the results of last week's election (marshaled) tens of thousands (in) the streets (in spite of) signs of an intensified crackdown....the government expanded (it) with more arrests and pressure against journalists to limit coverage of the protests." Scant mention was made of huge pro-Ahmadinejad crowds in central Tehran nor has there been in other media reports, especially on television where, not surprisingly, coverage has been distorted, one-way, and hostile to the Iranian president and regime, much as it's always been. What's going on? Are anti-Ahmadinejad protests spontaneous or are covert instigators inciting them? The Pak Alert Press reported that former Pakistani Army General Mirza Aslam Beig claims that the CIA distributed around $400 million inside Iran to incite revolution. In a June 15 interview with Pashto Radio, he cited "undisputed" intelligence proving interference. "The documents prove that the CIA spend $400 million inside Iran to prop up a colorful-hollow revolution following the election" to incite regime change for a pro-Western government. He called Ahmadinejad's victory "a decisive point in regional policy and if Pakistan and Afghanistan unite with Iran, the US has to leave the area, especially (from) occupied Afghanistan." "Late last year, Congress agreed to a request from President Bush to fund a major escalation of covert operations against Iran, according to current and former military, intelligence, and congressional sources. These operations, for which the President sought up to four hundred million dollars, were described in a Presidential Finding signed by Bush, and are designed to destabilize the country's religious leadership." On June 16, Computerworld's Robert McMillan reported more of it in writing about key Iranian web sites knocked offline. "On (June 15), sites belonging to Iranian news agencies, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Iran's supreme leader (Khamenei) were knocked offline after activists opposed to the Iranian government posted tools designed to barrage these websites with traffic." "This type of attack, known as a denial of service (DoS) attack, has become a standard political protest tool, and has been used by grassroots protesters" in previous cyber-incidents, including Georgia in 2008. Initial efforts were to recruit Iranian protesters, but international users are now being targeted. Dancho Danchev is a security consultant. He counted 12 Iranian sites under attack, including news agencies, the Foreign Affairs Ministry, National Police, and Ministries of Interior and Justice. Iranian officials have responded in kind to prevent protesters from social networking. Iran's General Internet service was also disrupted for a short time. It's again operating but anything may happen going forward. Computer World said Twitter "emerged as the major source of information on the protests, and is being" picked up in major media coverage. Of interest is a June 18 Yaroslav Trofimov Wall Street Journal online article headlined "Some Israelis Prize Ahmadinejad's Role." He explained that some high level Israelis prefer him in power. One is Mossad chief, Meir Dagan, telling a closed Knesset committee hearing that his controversial reputation "makes it easier for Israel to enlist international support against Iran's nuclear program." Mousavi winning, however, would have created "a graver problem." Israeli officials said that in the 1980s, Mousavi "jump-started Iran's nuclear drive" as prime minister. Both he and Ahmadinejad "pose the same threat. But it's better for Israel that you have a leader with a very dangerous ideology who speaks clearly so that nobody can ignore him," according to Knesset deputy speaker Danny Danon. A more soft-spoken president promising improved relations "would have made it harder for us to recruit the world to our side," he added, and the same argument holds for America. Addressing the issue of a stolen election, Dagan dismissed it out of hand in saying alleged ballot-stuffing in Iran is no worse than common electoral fraud in all democracies. In his judgment, protests will fizzle in several days. Ardesir Ommni, co-founder and president of the American Iranian Friendship Committee (AIFC), headlined his June 16 Mathaba.net article "Iran: Another Face of Velvet Revolution" in suggesting that Ahmadinejad's opposition "is doing its utmost to create unrest and prepare the ground for a velvet takeover" much like others in Georgia and Ukraine as well as twice before in Iran. It's not "realizable in Iran," he said, "because the workers and farmers, the millions who gave the lives of their children for the cause of independence and sovereignty, defend the Revolution and their real President who has frustrated the schemes and plots of the warmongers. (They're proud that) Ahmadinejad has defied and resisted the war threats and sanctions by the same powers that have ruined the lives of" millions throughout the world and want no part of it themselves. On June 15, Marxist.com editor Alan Woods expressed another view in headlining "Iran: the Revolution has begun." He cited "dramatic events" with hundreds of thousands in Tehran and other city streets disputing the election results. Some marched silently. Others were vocal, angry and confronted by riot police crackdowns. "The protests have marked the most serious display of discontent in the Islamic Republic in years. The breath of the mass movement is unprecedented (expressing) the accumulated rage and frustration that has been accumulating for the past 30 years....Power is slipping from the trembling hands of the leaders and passing to the streets....Nobody can say where events will end. But one thing is certain: Iran will never be the same again....the Iranian Revolution has begun!" Who can say if he, Ommni, or others are right or if Washington is plotting regime change, much like before in Iran and throughout the world. Thus far, events are fast moving with no clear outcome in sight. It remains to be seen whether Iranians or imperial America will prevail, then what happens next in this volatile part of the world.
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Stephen Lendman, a contributing editor to MWC News, is a Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization. He lives in Chicago and can be reached at lendmanstephen[at]sbcglobal.net.
Also listen to The Global Research News Hour on RepublicBroadcasting.org Monday through Friday at 10AM US Central time for cutting-edge discussions with distinguished guests on world and national issues. All programs are archived for easy listening.
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