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Jun 10 2005
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'Peak oil' enters mainstream debate
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Different definitions

The French report also echoes a fundamental problem at the heart of the oil business, namely data transparency.

Without accurate audited data, discovery forecasts, forward pricing and reserve calculations become a matter of debate rather than science.

This year alone the International Monetary Fund, the G7 and IEA have all called on Opec countries and Russia to open their fields to independent scrutiny. Image

"The definitions of oil reserves are different in many countries," the report observes.

"The capacities of sustainable production by Opec countries are very difficult to estimate. It is impossible to know production levels without waiting, at best, several months."

The report also goes on to look at the daunting levels of cost needed.

Firstly to extract current reserves but also to explore for new deposits.

"Somewhere in the region of $900bn will be needed by 2103 alone to develop [existing] reserves," it says.

"This massive investment will double as one will need to add exploration costs to this figure as future production from 2103 to 2030 will depend on it which means that to be successful, around $250bn a year will need to be spent."

"Ruinously high oil prices are making governments look at the subject," says Professor Heinberg.

"For example, when they are faced with whole industries like the airlines going bankrupt, it forces them to react, but they may be too late."

Suburban blight {mosgoogle right}

Ms White takes the problem from a different perspective.

Rather than a costly search for more oil, she recommends conserving its use.

"We are at the wrong stage of the economic cycle for a recession that would cut demand," she says.

"What is very important is conservation, especially in transport. Raising taxes on fuel, introducing toll roads and bridges into major cities for example, but also stopping the spreading of suburbs ever further from city centres.

"Controlling suburban blight is one way to slow oil consumption until we are a society no longer dependent on oil."

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