Abdullah Abdullah may be in a run-off election if some 250,000 of Karzai's votes are rejected [AFP]

Nearly two months after polling day, the UN-backed Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) is due on Saturday to unveil its findings of a probe into fraud allegations.

If enough votes are disqualified, the final result may push Karzai's share of the vote below 50 percent, the incumbent would then face Abdullah in a second round - barring possible legal steps to invalidate the decision or his rival's decision to withdraw.

Aleem Siddique, spokesman for the UN mission which appointed three of the ECC's five members, said preparations for a possible run-off were already underway, including measures designed to eliminate any risk of repeated fraud.

"Where required, staff will be replaced [at polling stations]," he said. "Polling stations will not open where security could lead to attempted fraud."

And US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told CNN in an interview that she believed Karzai would win a second vote. "It is likely that they will find that President Karzai got very close to the 50+1 percent," she said.

"I think one can conclude that the likelihood of him winning a second round is probably pretty high."

More cautious predictions

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, who arrived in Kabul on Saturday, said the delay in announcing results had provoked tensions but that whatever the ECC decision was, it must be respected.

"It's up to everyone to respect them, and to work for the smooth running either of the elected candidate's swearing in if an absolute majority is achieved, or for the preparation of a run-off if there is no such majority."

However, the chairman of the independent election commission - Azizullah Ludin - has not yet received a final report from the Election Complaints Committee on voting fraud.

Ludin said he will need at least a couple of days to consider what its final conclusions should be before any announcement might be made.

The August 20 election has left Afghanistan in a state of political uncertainty at a time when the United States is deciding whether to send more troops there to fight a resurgent Taliban.

Karzai won 54.6 percent of the vote, according to preliminary figures. More than 250,000 votes will have to be thrown out from his tally for it to fall below 50 percent.

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