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ICG: Civil War Threatens Iraq
Amman- MWCNews- By Saleh Zaitoon *

The International Crisis Group (ICG) warns that Iraq is threatened by a civil war that would tear the country apart. In the latest report released in Amman recently.

ICG urges the international community to act to prevent a low-intensity conflict from escalating into an all-out civil war that could lead to Iraq's disintegration and destabilize the entire region.

The report mentions that the year 2005 will be remembered as the time at which Iraq's latent sectarianism took wings, permeating the political discourse and precipitating incidents of appalling violence and sectarian "cleansing".

"The elections that bracketed the year, in January and December, underscored the newly acquired prominence of religion , perhaps the most significant development since the regime's ouster. With mosques turned into party headquarters and clerics outfitting themselves as politicians, Iraqis searching for leadership and stability in profoundly uncertain times essentially turned the elections into confessional exercises. Insurgents have exploited the post-war free-for-all; regrettably, their brutal efforts to jumpstart civil war have been met imprudently with ill-tempered acts of revenge." the report added.

ICG said that all efforts to hold Iraq together are on the verge of collapse. It analyses a polarization that was not inevitable and prescribes how to stop the downward slide and put Iraq on track to unity, compromise and reconciliation.

As the result of escalating sectarian violence and rhetoric over the past year, Sunni-Shiite tensions evident since the removal of Saddam’s regime have become deep rifts. Brutal efforts of some insurgents to exploit post-war-free-for-all and jumpstart civil war have been met with revenge acts. The 22 February attack on the al-Askariya shrine in Samara and subsequent reprisals are just the latest and most spectacular examples.

“There is still time to forge a genuine national compact and promote a national identity but institutional restraints that so far have prevented a break-up are fast eroding”, says Robert Malley, Crisis Group’s Middle East and North Africa Program Director. “The main burden is on Iraq’s leaders but they need all the help and pressure the U.S. and others can muster”.

To reverse the trend, the winners of the December 2005 elections must establish a government of genuine national unity with popular credibility and give Sunni Arab leaders more than just token roles; the government must make every effort to restore a sense of national identity and address Iraqis’ top concerns – personal safety and access to basic amenities. And it must begin to disband the sectarian militias.

Substantive changes must also be made to the constitution. What has become the blueprint for Iraq’s dissolution must become an inclusive document that protects all communities’ fundamental interests. The U.S., neighbours, Europeans and others must push to convince Iraqi leaders to revise key articles on federalism and oil distribution.

“It’s now up to Iraq’s religious authorities to urge their followers to remain calm in the face of provocations, and to political leaders to lower their dangerously inflammatory rhetoric, lest a low-intensity conflict turn into a full-scale sectarian war and the country disintegrate”, says Joost Hiltermann, Crisis Group’s Middle East Project Director.

At the end of its report, ICG displayed a number of recommendations to the winners of the December 2005 elections to face the real danger in Iraq as follows:

1. Strongly condemn sectarian-inspired attacks, such as the bombing of the al-Askariya shrine in Samarra but also reprisal attacks, and urge restraint.

2. Establish a government of national unity that enjoys popular credibility by:

(a) including members of the five largest electoral coalitions;

(b) dividing the key ministries of defense, interior, foreign affairs, finance, planning and oil fairly between these same lists, with either defense or interior being given to a respected and non-sectarian Sunni Arab leader, and the other to a similar leader of the United Iraqi Alliance;

(c) assigning senior government positions to persons with technical competence and personal integrity chosen from within the ministry; and

(d) adopting an agenda that prioritizes respect for the rule of law, job creation and provision of basic services.

3. Revise the Constitution's most divisive elements by:

(a) establishing administrative federalism on the basis of provincial boundaries, outside the Kurdish region; and

(b) creating a formula for the fair, centrally-controlled, nationwide distribution of oil revenues from both current and future fields, and creating an independent agency to ensure fair distribution and prevent corruption.

4. Halt sectarian-based attacks and human rights abuses by security forces, by:

(a) beginning the process of disbanding militias, integrating them into the new security forces so as to ensure their even distribution throughout these forces' hierarchies, at both the national and local levels;

(b) continuing to build the security forces (national army, police, border guards and special forces, as well as the intelligence agencies) on the basis of ethnic and religious inclusiveness, with members of Iraq's various communities distributed across the hierarchies of those forces as well as within the governorates;

(c) ensuring that the ministers of defense and interior, as well as commanders and senior officers at both the national and local level are appointed on the basis of professional competence, non-sectarian outlook and personal integrity; and

(d) establishing an independent commission, accountable to the council of deputies, to oversee the militias' dismantlement and the creation of fully integrated security forces.

5. In implementing de-Baathification, judge former Baath Party members on the basis of crimes committed, not political beliefs or religious convictions, and establish an independent commission, accountable to the council of deputies, to oversee fair and non-partisan implementation. Both former Baathists and non-Baathists suspected of human rights crimes or corruption should be held accountable before independent courts.

To the United States  government

6. Press its Iraqi allies to constitute a government of national unity and, in particular, seek to prevent the defense and interior ministries from being awarded to the same party or to strongly sectarian or otherwise polarizing individuals.

7. Encourage meaningful amendments to the Constitution to produce an inclusive document that protects the fundamental interests of all principal communities, as in recommendation 3 above.

8. Assist in building up security forces that are not only adequately trained and equipped, but also inclusive and non-sectarian.

9. Engage Iraq's neighbors, including Iran, in helping solve the crisis by taking the measures described in recommendation 11 below, and actively promote the reconciliation conference agreed to in Cairo in November 2005, encouraging representatives of all Iraqi parties and communities, as well as of governments in the region, to attend.

To donors:

10. Allocate funding to ministries and government projects, as well as civil society initiatives, strictly according to their compliance with principles of inclusiveness, transparency and competence.

To states neighboring Iraq:

11. Help stabilize Iraq by:

(a) expressing or reiterating their strategic interest in Iraq's territorial integrity;

(b) encouraging the winners of the December 2005 elections to form a government of national unity and accede to demands to modify the Constitution (as outlined in recommendation 3 above);

(c) strengthening efforts to prevent funds and insurgents from crossing their borders into Iraq; and

(d) promoting, and sending representatives to, the planned reconciliation conference which will take place in Baghdad.

It is noteworthy that ICG, based in Amman and Brussels, is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organization working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict.

*SALEH ZAITOON is MWCNews Middle East Bureau Chief, he is also working as CEO of Aarab Business Channel (ABC) which is the latest Business TV transmitted via Nile Sat specialized in the field of Business and Economy.

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