CENTRAL ASIAN BACKLASH AGAINST US FRANCHISED REVOLUTIONS

After a meeting on 5 July in the Kazakh capital Astana, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in a statement called on USA to spell out a deadline for withdrawal of its troops and military hardware from the region. The SCO, which was constituted as Shanghai Five at China’s initiative in 1995, is now composed of, apart from China and Russia, the central Asian Republics (CARs) of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan .India, Iran and Pakistan, who attended the summit in Astana have joined it as observers.

While stating that "We support and will support the international coalition, which is carrying out an anti-terror campaign in Afghanistan, and we have taken note of the progress made in the effort to stabilize the situation," the declaration added , "as the active military phase in the anti-terror operation in Afghanistan is nearing completion, the SCO would like the coalition's members to decide on the deadline for the use of the temporary infrastructure and for their military contingents' presence in those countries."

There was considerable discussion among members in finalizing the polite sting. Use of the phrase coalition members added at Russia’s behest points to the presence of Western troops in Afghanistan as well. AFX reported, "The leaders also included a clause on the inadmissibility of ' monopolizing or dominating international affairs' –an apparent reference to growing US interference in Central Asia."

SCO is still a loose organization originally established to counter Islamic terrorism, but with militarily powerful states like Russia, China and India and galloping Chinese and Indian economies and energy based economic recovery in Russia with its immense reserves and in other SCO members and observers, it could develop into an economic challenge to a US economy addicted to reckless deficits at home and in external trade, a stagnant and confused Europe Union caught between 15s and 10s.

USA is now caught in an Iraqi quagmire of its own making, which US leadership and Tony Blair regime thought would give them free run of Iraq oil and strategic control over the resources of the region. Extending US military presence beyond Afghanistan and Pakistan into central Asia was to further US led Western control and influence over central Asia’s energy and raw materials.

There could be an economic ,political and strategic space for the countries of the East i.e. Asia and Russia to coalesce into more a more formal and institutionalized structure .The SCO call to leave central Asia alone is the first challenge in the ongoing strategic East and West rivalry which is as old as history .

US air bases in central Asia,{mosgoogle right}

Apart from the bases in Afghanistan and help from non- NATO strategic ally Pakistan, the huge air base at Manas in Kyrgyzstan has as many as 1,200 US military personnel, mostly from rapid deployment units. When fully completed, the base would accommodate upwards of 3,000 troops. The U.S. also uses the Karshi-Khanabad airfield in southeastern Uzbekistan since late 2001, but has failed to convince the Uzbek Government to convert its temporary status into a permanent like in Kyrgyzstan. After the Andijan uprising in May, permission for night flights was ruled out.

About 18,000 coalition forces are in Afghanistan tracking al-Qaida and Taliban militants. Another 200 French personnel are deployed at an air force base in Tajikistan.

SCO Summit in Astana;

In their speeches at the SCO summit, the Russian officials referred to attempts by unspecified foreign forces to destabilize the region, but the Chinese President Hu Jintao and Uzbek President Islam Karimov contained veiled criticism of Western interference in Central Asia. Said Karimov, “(They) aim to create a situation of so-called manageable instability and ... foist on us their own model of development.” Speaking through a Russian interpreter Hu said. “The people of Central Asia are the only masters of their destiny,” adding “They are wise and free enough to put their own houses in order.”   

“There should be no place for interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states," said Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev. UzReport.com, Uzbekistan's largest business Internet portal, reported that Secretary-General of the SCO Zhang Deguang said that three evils – terrorism, extremism, and separatism – are the main threat to peace and security in the region.

Sergei Prikhodko, an aide to President Vladimir Putin, told reporters that the call was being made since active operations in Afghanistan were coming to an end. "No one is telling them it should be tomorrow, in a month, in five months or in a year and a half, but it's just straightforward that SCO members know by when the anti-terrorist coalition will leave," he said. Sanobar Shermatova, an Uzbek political analyst based in Moscow, said, "There is a growing feeling in central Asia that the Americans are only a source of instability."

Acting Foreign Minister of Kyrgyzstan, Roza Otunbayeva, reiterating the SCO demand next day on 6 July told reporters that she believed the situation in Afghanistan had stabilized "The question we're posing is what the term of presence is," Otunbayeva said. "We have put forward quite reasonable questions and I don't think our relations (with the United States) should be damaged," she said. However, Otunbayeva refused to say when the Kyrgyz leadership wanted the U.S. troops to leave.

SCO members are also affected by events in neighboring Afghanistan, with a post-Taliban (now re-emerging!) surge in poppy production; CARs are used as silk routes for narcotics. Some Russian experts claim that drug lords often team up with religious extremists, to create rebellion and chaos, useful for both sides. "Everyone is watching with very deep concern as the drug pipeline widens and deepens, while political stability deteriorates in some parts of Central Asia," says Sergei Kolmakov, an expert with PBN, an international strategic consultancy.

Russian- Chinese  joint statement last week on the new world order, their emphasis on a new security concept for Asia and now, the SCO  statement for a timetable for the eventual withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region, suggest maneuvers and battles for extension of strategic space between the East and the West.