How Many Kids Will Die?

The Israeli bombing and shelling of Gaza and Lebanon has already killed 120 people in Gaza and 380 people  in Lebanon as compared to about 40 Israeli deaths (half of them Israeli soldiers). However the vastly greater carnage of non-violent as well as violent “avoidable deaths” is simply NOT reported by lying, racist Mainstream media. This huge, hidden death toll is happening because of destruction of the economy and infrastructure crucial for keeping people alive. Indeed at this time (25 July 2006) 800,000 Lebanese have been made homeless (for key recent reports see: *1, *2, *3).

To assess the ACTUAL human consequences of this war criminal and horrendously deadly and disproportionate Israeli violence one can go to UN demographic data of the UN Population Division *4  and UNICEF *5 to determine how many under-5 year old infants are ALREADY dying in the Occupied Palestinian Territory and how many  WILL die as a result of the Israeli bombing.

To enable the reader to check my calculations and assertions I provide the following relevant UN-derived statistics (2003) for Israel’s immediate Arab neighbours on “population” (in millions, m) , “under-5 infant population”/”total population” expressed as a percentage (%) and of “annual under-5 year old infant death rate” expressed as a percentage (%): Egypt (71.3m, 12.2%, 0.75%),  Iraq (24.9m, 15.5%, 2.74%), Jordan (5.4m, 13.8%, 0.66%), Lebanon (3.6m, 9.7%. 0.63%), Occupied Palestinian Territory (3.5m, 18.1%, 0.51%), Saudi Arabia (23.9m, 13.7%, 0.62%), and (Syria (17.6 m, 13.6%, 0.54%)  - as compared to the data for Israel (6.4m, 10.1%, 0.12%), Kuwait (2.5m. 9.2%, 0.22%) and United Arab Emirates (3.0m, 7.9%, 0.15%).

ACTUAL OCCUPIED PALESTINIAN TERRITORY & LEBANON INFANT DEATHS

Inspection of this data tells us that a Muslim Arab country, the United Arab Emirates, can achieve an “annual under-5 year old infant death rate” (0.15%) comparable to that of Israel (0.12%). Kuwait (0.22%) has been remote from Israeli violence but has borne a heavy burden of collateral consequences of US-UK-Israeli barbarism in the Middle East (the Gulf War and a huge Palestinian refugee population prior to the Gulf War).

In assessing the ACTUAL “avoidable annual under-5 infant death rate” in the Occupied Palestinian Territory and Lebanon we need to take a “baseline value” e.g. (a) Israel (0.12%) (from a non-racist view, the example of the United Arab Emirates and consideration of the Geneva Convention which demands that the Occupier is obliged to do everything possible to preserve the lives of the Occupied) or (b) Syria (0.54%) (impoverished neighbouring country, similar Muslim and Christian culture, partially occupied and partially ethnically cleansed by Israel, acutely threatened by 3 nuclear powers and with an authoritarian government).

Israel-based estimating (a) yields an ACTUAL “avoidable annual under-5 infant death rate” in the Occupied Palestinian Territory and Lebanon of  0.39% and 0.51%, respectively, this translating to ACTUAL “annual avoidable under-5 infant deaths” totaling 2,471 and 1,781, respectively.

Syria-based estimating (b) yields an ACTUAL “avoidable annual under-5 infant death rate” in the Occupied Palestinian Territory and Lebanon of  0.0% and 0.09%, respectively,  this translating to ACTUAL “annual avoidable under-5 infant deaths” totaling 0 and 314, respectively.

EXPECTED OCCUPIED PALESTINIAN TERRITORY & LEBANON INFANT DEATHS

If the continuing war criminal Israeli devastation of the economy and civilian infrastructure crucial for preserving life yields a situation in the Occupied Palestinian Territory and Lebanon similar to that in Iraq (“annual under-5 infant death rate” under US-led occupation 2.74%) then the EXPECTED “avoidable annual under-5 infant death rate” in the Occupied Palestinian Territory and Lebanon can be estimated based on the (a) Israeli or (b) Syrian baselines as outlined above.

Israel-based estimating (a) yields an EXPECTED  “avoidable annual under-5 infant death rate” in the Occupied Palestinian Territory and Lebanon of  2.62%, this translating to EXPECTED “annual avoidable under-5 infant deaths” totaling 16,598 and 9,149, respectively.

Syria-based estimating (b) yields an EXPECTED “avoidable annual under-5 infant death rate” in the Occupied Palestinian Territory and Lebanon of 2.20%, this translating to EXPECTED “annual avoidable under-5 infant deaths” totaling 13,937 and 7,682, respectively.