Neo-Cons Middle-East Project Brings It to Boil.
"The nation-state offers most of its members a stronger sense of security, belonging or affiliation and even personal identity, than does any alternative large group" - Karl Deutch.
It has been said that democracy is not only a form of state and administration but a philosophy of life and an outlook. A Nation’s constitution to make the State’s Authority & Laws patent, there a consensus in the Country is the much needed.
In Iraq, the powerful but marginalized Sunnis ejected the Shiia-Kurdish Constitution Project only to end up with their rejection by 30th January electorate, perhaps for not supporting the US wave.
Sunni Arabs who form 20% of the population can not be lost sight of. Dismissal of Sunni dominated forces and the Baath party members were a Himalayan blunder, which has taken shape of raging resistance and waging a war of liberation to expel the occupation forces.
Irrespective of the system, talent from within the country attracts the best States. States do not go in search of Exiles & Outsiders for their self-rule!{mosgoogle right}
In the U.S, Public debate demanding that George Bush explains the noble cause of Cindy Sheehan’s son's sacrifice in the Iraq Conflict.
With a wide fundamental chasm between the positions taken by the Sunnis on one hand and Shies and Kurds on the other, Iraq's interim Parliament on 28 August accepted the draft Constitution without a vote. The 15 members representing Sunnis absented themselves and publicly rejected the draft.
Sunni negotiators& the Sunni Arab delegates complained that the promise of drafting the constitution with consensus was not kept up. Hussein al-Falluji said that this Constitution contained the seeds of Iraq's bloody partition, something, he said, would "serve American interests."
The draft constitution contains a provision that no legislation may be passed that contradicts Islamic law and at the same time advocating human rights and democracy, making it self-contradictory.
The Kurds in the north have enjoyed almost full autonomy under US protection since the end of 1991 Gulf War and strengthened it further since March 2003.The draft Constitution proposes creation of a semi-autonomous regional zone in the Shiia south as well, thus dividing the oil wealth among Kurds and Shies. As it is likely to break up Iraq with Iran strengthening its position in the South. The Sunnis strongly opposed this federal nature in the set-up.
Kurds have rejected Sunnis demand that Iraq's "Arab identity" is upheld and the ban on outlawed Baath party be removed. The Sunni Arabs also objected to Kurdish being one of two official languages (including Arabic) for all of Iraq. They wanted the official status of Kurdish to be recognized only in the Kurdistan region.
Sunnis, who are now registering to vote in the referendum scheduled for October 15, would have enough votes in 3, states to defeat the draft Constitution, on their own.
Fiery Shiia cleric Moqtda As-Sadr and his followers would also join the Sunnis in rejecting the draft. Said they are opposed to the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), born and nurtured in Iran and the most powerful Shiia party in the government, and the major force behind the present draft.
As-Sader’s supporters in Kufa, Najaf, Baghdad (Sadr City), Nasiriyah, Amarah, Basra and elsewhere chanted against the new Constitution, complained about lack of electricity and other services. Demonstrations by Ba’athists and Saddam loyalists holding aloft Saddam Hussein's photographs against the Constitution have continued in Iraq.
A Question whether Legal approval is required by the Transitional Administrative Law i.e. The interim constitution for framing a new constitution remains unanswered.
However, the US Ambassador in Baghdad Zalmay Khalilzad, the new resident puppeteer, adores the Iraqi constitution the best in the Muslim world.
George Bush welcomes the draft constitution process;
''Like our own nation's founders over two centuries ago, the Iraqis are grappling with difficult issues, such as the role of the federal government," said George W. Bush in a radio address.
"Iraqis are working together to build a free nation that contributes to peace and stability in the region, and we will help them succeed,"
''What is important is that Iraqis are now addressing these issues through debate and discussion -- not at the barrel of a gun." he added.
How very ironical, but very much like Bush! For a change, the barrels of the guns sport US emblem!
USA had taken 10 years to finalize the Constitution in relative security after having expelled the British colonial power and itst troops.
"The constitution is left to our people to approve or reject ... me hope they will approve it despite some flaws," said Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, who is a Kurd.
Sunnis demand to uphold Iraq's "Arab identity” and this was rejected by the Kurds Moqtda As-Sadr felt that the curbs on former Ba’athists were not severe enough.
For Washington, it was a setback specially with falling approval polls of the President at the home front. But many Democrats, now seeing the change in the political wind at home, did not agree with the government view.
Khalilzad statement on NBC confirms the Government stand "Not everyone loves every article of this document, not everyone is totally satisfied, but there is enough in this constitution that meets the basic needs of all communities and for Iraq to move forward,"
Fear of Partition:
The disagreement over the draft Constitution would aggravate the political and military vacuum already morphing into a civil war and might even lead to partition, if the Shies and Kurds tried to have their way on federalism and divide the oil wealth among them comparing the unfolding catastrophe in Iraq to the Lebanese Civil War.
The people of Iraq are heroically resisting blatant US colonization of Iraq in the full gaze of world community.
President Bush has been saying that USA wants to bring about changes in the Middle East and introduce freedom, liberty and democracy.
The historical forces unleashed the illegal invasion of Iraq.
It is becoming a telltale that ‘Only someone as strong and brutal as Saddam Hussein’ could keep the country together.
The enmity between the various sections of the Iraqi society, Fanned by the US forces from day one, is taking its lethal course in vicious killings and counter killings.
However, following the 2003 US war on Saddam Hussein, not even the Iranians could have dreamt of such a wonderful outcome. Iraq which was encouraged and seduced into attacking Iran after the 1979 Khomeini revolution, was supported and financed by almost all the Sunni Gulf kingdoms and sheikdoms openly and covertly almost by most western nations led by UK ,US . But now Iraq, the historical rival to Persia lies supine and destroyed, on the verge of a civil war and even division
US hostility has helped an unknown hardliner to win Iran's presidency, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, a top confidant of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who heads the powerful conservative Guardian Council, told worshippers at Tehran's Friday prayers, "Fortunately, after years of effort and expectations in Iraq, an Islamic state has come to power and the constitution has been established on the basis of Islamic precepts".
"We must congratulate the Iraqi people and authorities for this victory", and added that all justice-seeking counties of the world "Have no model other than the Islamic revolution in Iran to turn to".
"We are the winners in the nuclear issue, too", beamed Jannati. "The way is paved for our progress and we just need to work hard". He also added that the rising oil prices had placed Iran on a sound financial footing. "We still have problems, but less than before".
Conclusions:
Bad money drives good money out of circulation!
Apart from an earlier report by the US Audit about over $ 8 billion of Iraqi money not being accounted for fully for the period of US Administrator Paul Bremer's reign, a recent report for the 8 month period after that, compiled by the Iraqi Board of Supreme Audit has concluded that at least half, and probably more, of $1.27bn of Iraqi money spent on military procurement has disappeared into a miasma of kickbacks and vanished middlemen - or else has been spent on useless equipment.
New York Times confirmed what was obvious to close observers—that the US is denying the new Iraqi army heavy arms for fear they might be turned eventually on US forces. At the same time, attacks on US forces in Iraq are now back to over 70 per day. US will cross the 2, 000dead mark before too much longer, and things are about to get much, worse.
As Iraqis continue to say, "Today is better than tomorrow." The same goes for US troops there. No wonder a relatively recent US Army survey in Iraq foundthat54 % of all soldiers reported either "low" or "very low” morale & moral too!
The interplay of forces in Iraq is operating at many levels. The sunnis, while preparing to register to reject the Constitution on October 15, when it reaches that stage, would carry on their resistance in order to liberate Iraq from the occupying forces.
The political and security power vacuum after the fiasco of the draft Constitution would make it quicker.
USA had thought that it would be able to manipulate Shiia Cleric Ali Sistani and Shies for its objectives, while the Shies, adept at surviving Arabs, Mongols , Turks and others throughout their long history thought they would use the American military forces to neutralize the Baathist power and forces. Apart from Shiia Al Bader militia group, the new Iraqis security forces and police are being recruited from Shia's and Kurds, which explains why they are the target of Sunni and foreign resistance groups.
The Kurds also have their own militia groups led by Talabani and Barzani but despite the current ban homie between the two groups, there are fundamental differences in their objectives. Their current joint aim is how to take over or the oil rich Kirkuk region which will give them wealth and economic clout enabling them to declare sovereignty. Their problems would come from Turkey in the North.
Nevertheless, the people are fed up and tired of these games Moqtda As-Sadr is one leader, who understands the American game .He also understands the manipulations by the Shiia Clerics
The author remains hopeful that the Iraqis would realize the Anglo-Saxon game of exploiting religious and other differences. USA is already building military bases for long term stay. It should be remembered that even those who had voted for Shiia parties had been promised that the US forces would leave soon. Nearly 90 members of the Iraqi Parliament had demanded the withdrawal of the US forces.
The dangers of civil wars and the division of the country now look quite ominous. Once escalation builds up it would be very difficult to stop it. The Americans and certainly its regional Sheriff Israel have all along thought of the option of creating an independent Kurdistan in north Iraq , which has enjoyed autonomy and freedom with the air support provided by the Americans since the first Gulf war.
Autonomy or independence in north Iraq would be fiercely resisted by Turkey. In spite of promising to Ankara that US would control if not eliminate the impact of guerillas of Marxist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), now nearly 4000 ,ensconced in north Iraq , the Americans have done nothing and perhaps want to use them as a lever against Turkey, if and when the necessity arises . Turkey is in a real bind. The five year voluntary ceasefire by PKK was not renewed last June and since then there have been regular PKK attacks inside Turkey. In addition, the Kurds in southeast Turkey next to Kurdish Iraq are restive.
Turkey had serious problems with its own Kurds, who form20 % of the population. A rebellion since 1984 against the Turkish state led by Abdullah Ocalan of the PKK cost over37, 000 lives, including 5,000 soldiers. To control and neutralize the rebellion, thousands of Kurdish villages were bombed, destroyed, abandoned or relocated; millions of Kurds were moved to shanty towns in the south and east or migrated westwards. The economy of the region was shattered. With a third of the Turkish army tied up in the southeast, the cost of countering the insurgency at its height amounted to between US$ 6billion to $ 8billion a year.
Throughout history, outsiders have exploited the Kurdish people, who remain divided and spread in Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria. Kurds of Turkey, who have got many of their grievances resolved are fascinated by the sight of a Kurdish leader Talabani becoming the president of Iraq and Barzani ruling the roost in autonomous Kurdish north Iraq , next door. Centuries old Kurdish dream of an independent Kurdistan dovetails with US and Israeli contingency plans. The Kurds might come to believe that it is now or a never for them. An independent and united Kurdistan, with the oil wealth of Kirkuk in Iraq could make it an economically viable state.
Of course it will create problems all around and churn in and out the whole region with Turkey, Iran and Syria ganging up to stop such an outcome. Nor would Sunni Arabs and states in the region approve that Kurds of north Iraq have an independent state of their own or be taken over by Turkey.
The other aspect concerns the Sunni Arab populations with tribal afiliations across borders and their governments in the region i.e. Egypt , Saudi Arabia , Syria , Jordan , Yemen and even Gaza and the West bank , who are watching the unfolding of events with great apprehension and trepidation . A government dominated by Shia's in Iraq or an independent Shiia state in south Iraq, along with ruling Alawaite Shiia elite in Syria and well-entrenched Shiia Hizbullahs militia in Lebanon would resurrect the dreaded historic Shiia Sunni divide in the region, which erupted in 1979 and pitched the two sides against each other.
But then only Iraq and Iran were the battle fields. Now it could engulf the whole region. While US might chide Damascus for not stopping Sunni resistance fighters entering Iraq from Syria, reports suggest that more are entering Iraq from Saudi Arabia and Jordan. In spite of rigid security control in Jordan, insurgents succeeded in firing rockets at US naval ships in its port of Aqaba.
A "tantalizing end" for the neocons dreams in Iraq;
Let me quote from Michigan University Prof. Juan Cole, who took on of Sunday Times for his 28 August article 'Iraq still offers a tantalizing prospect of successes;
"It should be remembered where the word "tantalizing" came from" wrote Prof Cole . He then lets Odysseus describe a scene in Hades in Homer's Odyssey:
'"I also saw the awful agonies that Tantalus has to bear. The old man was standing in a pool of water which nearly reached his chin, and his thirst drove him to unceasing efforts; but he could never get a drop to drink. For whenever he stooped in his eagerness to lap the water, it disappeared. The pool was swallowed up, and all he saw at his feet was the dark earth, which some mysterious power had parched. Trees spread their foliage high over the pool and dangle fruits above his head—pear-trees and pomegranates, apple-trees with their glossy burden, sweet figs and luxuriant olives. But whenever the old man tried to grasp them in his hands, the wind would toss them up towards the shadowy clouds.
"The American Right playing Tantalus, and Iraq as their punishment in Hades, is a more appropriate comparison than Mr. Sullivan perhaps realized. Tantalus was notorious for ever wanting more, for wanting to be god-like, just as the Bushies think that they are manufacturers of reality and the rest of wretched humanity is clay in their divine hands. It should also be remembered that some say Tantalus was punished by the gods for having invited them to a banquet and having served them food into which the remains of his son, whom he had killed, had been ground up. The warmongers' sacrifice of Americans' children for their aggressive policies is a similar sin.
"Sullivan says that given US and British forces on the ground, the "insurgency" "cannot win." The problem is that the "insurgency" doesn't have to win in order to succeed. All it has to do is spoil everyone else's successes."
"Apart from sabotaging the oil pipelines and the electricity grid that supports them, the guerrillas have reduced Iraqi government revenue by a third to a half of what it otherwise would be. They have put the lives of every senior member of the new government in danger, and have managed to assassinate a whole roster of high-ranking officials, even two members of the new parliament and two members of the constitution drafting committee. They have kept the new government, and even the US military, from truly controlling the major Sunni Arab cities, and have even made mixed cities such as Baqubah big security problems. -- [ or sunni citadel Haditha , 3 hours drive north of Baghdad.]
"These tactics are proving successful and can be maintained for a very long time. At present troop levels, to use Sullivan's phrase, there is no prospect of the United States military defeating the Sunni Arab guerrilla movement. From all accounts, as well, the British military cannot hope effectively to curb the Mahdi Army in Maysan Province, a province in which the political arm of the Sadrists came to power in the January 30 elections.
"This point is important because the Sunni guerrillas' ability to keep Iraq from moving forward-- their ability to act as spoilers-- is a key political asset. -- Sullivan's twin convictions that Bush will not draw down US troops during the next 3 years, and that Democrats will be afraid to run against the Republicans on the Iraq War are both likely [ to be] incorrect."
In my article dated 5 January, 2004 for www. Saag .org , Occupation "case studies of Algeria and Turkey " IRAQI RESISTANCE & WAR FOR INDEPENDENCE", I had written ;
"The Algerian war of independence lasted from 1954 to 1962 , in which almost every family lost a member ; a son, a cousin, a nephew, willingly or unwillingly sacrificed at the alter of freedom, self respect and dignity. After its defeat in World War 1 when the Ottoman empire lay supine under the heels of Allied powers in its capital Istanbul with the Sultan Caliph a captive, the national leadership, led by Mustapha Kemal and his comrades, mostly former Ottoman soldiers, aroused the masses of Anatolia to make yet another supreme effort to expel the Greeks and other occupying powers."
Let us hope that Iraq survives as a nation state and liberates itself. Civil wars and its division and consequent dangerous and ruinous long lasting ramifications are too difficult to even contemplate. Remember how, why and by whom the World Wars were started and how they ended .
(K Gajendra Singh, served as Indian Ambassador to Turkey and Azerbaijan in 1992-96. Prior to that, he served as ambassador toJordan (during the 1990-91 Gulf war), Romania and Senegal . He is currently chairman of the Foundation for Indo-Turkic Studies, in Bucharest . The views expressed here are his own.- He can be reached at: G-Singh@mwcnews.net
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