Apologize In Advance
Jason Rosenbaum
http://www.theseminal.com/

I’ve been going back and forth all day about whether to put down some predictions for tomorrow’s caucus. Not that I’m afraid I’ll be wrong. I freely admit I’m no more savvy about these things than most Americans. In fact, if I get anything higher than maybe a 40-50% success rate, I’ll count myself a genius.

Still, making predictions like this treats politics like a game. As my esteemed colleague Alex writes, “Politics is not a fucking sports match.” This election is very important, Bush has really set our country back, and we should take all of this seriously.

However, seeing as Iowa news is going to dominate the political world for at least one more day and there is nothing I can do about it, making real discussion of other issues fairly useless, here goes with some predictions:

Democrats

I think Barack Obama will win the Iowa caucus tomorrow. His latest poll numbers, from the Des Moines Register (which was most accurate last cycle), puts him at 32% to Clinton’s 25% and Edwards’ 24%. On top of that, Obama has momentum, where Clinton seems to be losing steam. People like to pick a winner, and momentum drives media coverage. So momentum is important. On top of that, the weather is supposed to be clear and cold, which supposedly favors the youth.

I don’t think Obama will win by a landslide, however. A caucus goers 2nd choice will come into play heavily, with 19% of poll respondents either uncommitted or backing a 2nd tier candidate. I can easily see Joe Biden’s 4% siding with Clinton as a 2nd, and while I feel most Richardson, Kucinich, or Dodd supporters will not end up in the Clinton camp, it’s hard to tell whether they favor Edwards or Obama. I’d expect Hillary to finish with a strong 2nd based on her name recognition and inevitability narrative, which means Iowa won’t put her out of the race.

I think John Edwards will be right on Hillary’s heels as well, especially if he gets a boost with his recent stand on Iraq, meaning that I expect a tight three way race going into New Hampshire.

In the 2nd tier, I personally think Chris Dodd will come in with more support than his 1-2% polling numbers show.

Republicans

Huckabee is going to win this one. He’s got momentum (that’s important, remember?) and his softer, more values based rhetoric seems to resonate with Iowans. I think McCain will pull an upset as well and come in 2nd. Romney has been slipping badly these days, and McCain again seems like a more honest politician and someone Iowans are more likely to support. I’d predict Romney will get a close 3rd.

In the 2nd tier, Giuliani will finish poorly, but that’s been expected. So will Thompson. Though he’s polling at 9% now, Ron Paul may break double digits, but only if he has enough concentrated support. If he doesn’t get to a level of viability in most districts, it’s going to be an uphill battle.

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Those are my predictions. Seems like I line up with Chris Bower’s numbers for the Democrats at least. Still, I’m almost certain to be wrong. And the future of our country doesn’t rest on the outcome of this or any other horse race. Still, why not, right?

You got predictions? Lay them out below!

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