MWC News - A Site Without Borders - - After Non-Franchised Andijan

Soon after the collapse of the Soviet Union in early 1990s, when top Turkish leaders like President Turgut Ozal, Prime Minister Suleiman Demirel and others met with the leaders of newly independent Turkic speaking Central Asian Republics (CARs) like Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, they were told by the former Communist party chiefs become Presidents that they would like to follow the Chinese model of economic development with full political control aka dictatorship. Late Alparslan Turkesh, Turkey’s pan-Turk nationalist leader said that they were inexperienced and needed our help.

After zigzagging and muddling through for decade and a half, finally Islam Karimov , President of Uzbekistan ,has sought the Chinese embrace and was duly comforted in Beijing which he visited soon after the violent uprising on 13 May in Uzbek city of Andijan in the Ferghana valley and its brutal suppression .It would be quite some time before the country recovers from this trauma or the credibility of US led western powers who would have denounced it as another Tiananman massacre but for the US base in south Uzbekistan.

The roots of the current malaise in most CARs lie in the sudden demise of the USSR. Without Moscow's monetary lifeline and control, integrated industry and trade structure, the CARs were plunged into economic chaos. With little experience in running a state, former obedient party members had, implemented policies framed and ordered from Moscow and were not quite up to the task. Self-preservation and stability was achieved through continued communist style repression and new linkages based on extended family, mohalla (neighborhood) and regions.

The de-centralization and sudden cutting of umbilical links with Moscow and each other destroyed much of the agrarian and industrial infrastructure of the entire region impoverishing the masses. However, if the so-called economic shock therapy and globalization were followed, they would have been robbed like Russia by its oligarchs, who transferred hundreds of billions of Russian money to the west .Some, are now in exile.

In the east President of Kyrgyzstan Askar Akaev, Washington’s darling and poster boy till recently , who implemented economic reforms and democracy was ousted last month with blatant support from US embassy ,NGO’s and other US based institutions. Not from the party nomenklatura, he became a victim of his greed and corruption.

In the west Georgia’s President Eduard Shevardnadze , a long time US faithful , was booted out unceremoniously to install new Washington favorite US educated Mikheil Saakashvili with a Dutch wife .He is turning out to be just another autocrat. Ukraine’s new President Viktor Yushchenko married to a former member of the US State department was rewarded for faithfully implementing IMF program while Prime Minister which had impoverished the people and ruined Ukraine’s industry .His task now is to detach Ukraine away , which is umbilical and strategically joined with Russia.( A 3 rd Century BC Indian political adviser Chanakya in Arthashastra i.e. a treatise on how to run a state , devoted a whole chapter on the use of femme fatales to control recalcitrant foreign rulers ) .In Moldova Vladimir Voronin ,nominally a communist was re-elected President on his anti- Russian platform .It is too small a country and marginalized after victory of pro-US Presidents in Ukraine and in Romania.

But Ukraine , where the West –East battle has only been engaged , Georgia and Moldova are Christian nations, but venturing into Muslim Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan was too close for comfort not only for Russia with its large Muslim population , but even China , which has problems with its Muslim Turkic Uighurs in Xingjian province , only 200 kms east of Andijan.

Two weeks after the Andijan uprising in a hurried visit to Beijing President Karimov received a red carpet treatment and welcomed as an "old friend," with a long meeting and dinner with Chinese President Hu Jintao. Hu assured Karimov that China "respects the way the Uzbek people choose to develop their country and their efforts in safeguarding national independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity” and “continued cooperation in the fight against Muslim separatists.” Karimov said that Uzbekistan shares China's position against terrorism, separatism and extremism .China also snubbed calls for more pressure on Uzbekistan to accept an international probe on the uprising.

The two Presidents signed a treaty on friendly and cooperative partnership at the start of the 3-day visit, which Karimov described as of "historic significance”. They also witnessed the signing of a dozen agreements to cement bilateral cooperation in the areas of energy, economy, trade and technology. Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing said that the treaty provided a legal basis for the long-term growth of Sino-Uzbek relationship in a stable and comprehensive manner.

China hopes to carry out substantial cooperation in energy sector, mining, telecommunication and infrastructure, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said. "China and Uzbekistan are close neighbors and should take geographical advantage to promote economic cooperation, which is in compliance with the needs of the two countries." China has promised investments amounting to US $ 600 million in Uzbek energy sector .Fast-developing China is keen for access to Uzbek oil, natural gas and other resources.

Ding Peihua, a Central Asia expert at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences said that if Uzbekistan were not stable, then it would have a big impact on China’s security situation. It is one of the key hideouts of ethnic Uighur Muslim separatists seeking to create an independent state in Xinjiang .They have close links with Uzbekistan’s Islamic extremist groups .Ding said that some reports had indicated that most of the East Turkestan separatists were in Uzbekistan. It was unclear how much assistance Karimov provided China in the past, but Ding added that Tashkent shared much intelligence with Beijing on separatist groups and activities.

Early 1990s were a very opportune moment for fast industrializing Turkey under free market regime, whose trained managers and experts because of ethnic, linguistic and religious affinities quickly became advisers and even ministers in the new CARs governments. Turkey provided loans amounting to US$750 millions. Turkish private sector investment runs into billions of dollars. Turks have established many industries and other businesses and run many hotels.

Turkey also arranged to train 10,000 students and teachers from the region. Turkish, spoken in Turkey, although purified of many Arabic and Persian words is quite similar to the Azeri and Turcoman language, but the languages spoken by Uzbeks, Kyrgyz and in Kazakhstan is somewhat different. Many Turks opened schools in Central Asia, too. Turkey also started beaming Avrasia TV programs to Central Asia, but with uneven results.

However, Turkish efforts to create an area of influence in Central Asia were thwarted by the newly independent leadership who were cautious and wanted good relations with all. Turkey also did not have the wherewithal to do it. A loose organization of Turkic states exists without having achieved much. USA had encouraged Turkey afraid that Russia would try to come back, which it did.

Nevertheless, fears that Iran would spread its version of fanatic Islam and support anti-US regimes proved farfetched. After an exhausting war with Iraq in the 1980s, in which Iran lost a million young people, there was little energy or money left to spread the Shi'a revolution. Except for the Azeris and some pockets, most people in Central Asia are Sunni Muslims, closer to the mystic Sufi way of life. Under USSR, they achieved a high level of education and a lifestyle of drinking and carefree living. It were the ill conceived US, Saudi and Pakistani policies that brought Wahhabi Islam to Central Asia.

Except For US, energy corporate interests in the Caspian basin the American leadership soon forgot the region. Yes, the US courted President Askar Akaev, promoting him as a model democrat and helped Kyrgyzstan enter the World Trade Organization in 1998. It was to have a friendly regime with freedom to base US personnel and sensing equipment to monitor China, next door.

The Soviet Republic of Uzbekistan was created from Soviet Turkistan under the influence of Jadids of Bukhara Khanate, to which were added the traditional Tajik cities of Bukhara and Samarkand, Khiva and Kokand Khantes with Tajikistan as its autonomous republic. In 1925, Mikhail Kalinin at the first Congress of the Republic’s Communist Party in Bukhara said that Uzbekistan would play a central, even hegemonistic role in Central Asia, but as an agent of the Soviet Union.

However, by 1929 with Stalin in charge, the situation had changed and Uzbekistan was cut to size with the creation of Tajikistan republic. The capital was shifted from Samarkand to Tashkent to realign its leadership. Throughout there has been competition between the elites from Samarkand and Bukhara region, Tashkent region and the Ferghana region based in Andijan. Ferghana is densely populated region and in some ways more religious in outlook.

How ever, even after 1929 Uzbekistan still remained and remains the most powerful Republic in the region. Its population is now 26 million compared to 4/5 millions each in neighboring Republics, except Kazakhstan, with its 16 millions with vast energy resources and even vaster area. Thus, there was a struggle with Tashkent wanting an independent role and dominating its neighbors while Moscow has tried to influence it even after independence.

The selection of Islam Karimov, born near Samarkand in 1938, to the post of the first secretary still remains a mystery. He was an economic technocrat and not a real party nomenklatura. He was brought back from a punishment posting in Karshi to a central position in 1989, one reason being the massive purging of Uzbekistan’s party elite following enquiries into massive corruption under Sharaf Rachidov’s long rule from 1959 to 1983, coinciding with Brezhnev era, after Andropov took over.

Removal of Moscow ‘s man Rafiq Nishanov with help from Ferghana elite after riots in the valley in June 1989 and Karimov’s being catapulted as the President in March 1990 , in line with the new Moscow practice , still remains a mystery. Shukuralla Mirsaidov, Ferghana valley’s leader lost out, when he supported the August 1991 coup against Gorbachev, when Karimov fortunately happened to be in India. Karimov became elected President in January 1992 and soon eased out Mirsaidov. Thus, Karimov reached the top with little experience of having built up party connections with the various clans and ethnicities and moving up the ladder.

Not that Karimov was not forewarned so he took measures to forestall creeping US financed and supported revolutions specially the "Rose Revolution" in Georgia the “Orange Revolution “in Ukraine. International media including the author have documented overt and covert role of the National Endowment for Democracy (NED); its affiliates the International Republican Institute (IRI), the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI), the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE), and the American Center for International Labor Solidarity (ACILS),the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Freedom House and George Soros' Open Society Institute and others in these US franchised revolutions by street action. Karimov did shut down many of the US financed NGOs. However, the ‘Tulip revolution’ in neighboring Kyrgyzstan was scorching close .It had begun from Osh, 50 kms from Andijan.

Karimov had welcomed the US invasion of Afghanistan to remove the Taliban regime, which had sent trained Jihadis to Uzbekistan. Nevertheless, when the Anglo-Saxons built up the momentum for an unjustified invasion of Iraq towards the end of 2002, Karimov started shifting gears away from USA and the West. Unlike Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, which dispatched token contingents to Iraq , he did not support the invasion .He moved closer to Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and insisted that its anti-terrorist center be located in Tashkent. Karimov sent his Foreign Minister Sodik Safaev to China. Soon there was a visit by President Hu Jintao to Tashkent and the SCO summit meeting was held in Tashkent.

Prior to Ukraine’s ‘Orange Revolution’ in late 2004, few believed GUUAM (US sponsored organization of Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova formed in 1997) would ever develop into anything viable. However, the US installed rulers in Georgia and Ukraine, expressed renewed interest in GUUAM, to promote integration with Western economic and political structures as a counter to Russia. Uzbekistan, which joined the group in 1999, was a nominal participant .While withdrawing from it on 5 May it asserted that the organization had "significantly changed [its] initially declared goals and tasks." Russian political analysts welcomed the withdrawal as a "friendly gesture towards Moscow." Some observers expect Russia to respond and expand economic and political cooperation with Tashkent.

According to reports, 23 local businesspersons, members of Akramia, a small Islamic group that established a mutual self-help construction company for economic cooperation and not religious activities, were on trial since February on charges of "Islamic terrorism". In Islamic community especially among Sufi tariqas, such trade-based groups/guilds are quite common. Nevertheless, many such groups while helping the poor have also become powerful .like Hamas in Palestine and Islamic parties in Turkey like the ruling Justice and Development party.

Akramia was established by Akram Yuldashev, a teacher, and had split off from Hizbut Tahrir (HT). It proved very popular among educated youngsters in the Ferghana Valley and promoted honest, pious Islamic way of life and economic welfare .It emphasizes the Islamic tradition of zakat, with part of business profits being set aside to help the poor and the needy. Yuldashev was jailed in 1999.

HT claims that it does not promote armed jihad and has its main office in UK. USA had listed the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) as a terrorist organization (responsible for the 1999 bombings in Tashkent to assassinate Karimov) but not HT. However, in Uzbekistan, almost all opposition groups against the regime are considered terrorists .So Karimov has blamed HT for a series of bombings - which the group denies - as well as unspecified al-Qaida-connected organizations.

According to reports on 13 May protesters close to the 23 businessmen organized a commando raid to release them, and took over the local administration offices in the process killing many security personnel – Some protestors also demanded that Karimov to resign. The protesters claimed that the 23 would have been condemned, tortured and killed. The next day according to Galima Bukharbaeva of the Institute for War and Peace Reporting, a column of armored personnel carriers came out firing at the protesters without any provocation. As many as 500 were reportedly killed, including women and children, and more than 2,000 wounded. Another 200 were killed in a nearby town.

In 1989, a massacre was reported in Timisoara, a Romanian town that led to the overthrow of Nicolae Ceausescu. First reports spoke of "3,000 to 4,000" dead; and then "12,000" and even "70,000". Only after the regime change the real number of dead turned out to less than 200. Four years after Milosevic went; on trial, a massacre at Racak in Kosovo in January 1999 - one of the main reasons for NATO's attack on Yugoslavia, has not been uncovered yet.

Eyewitness accounts said a mob of about 100 strong with automatic weapons, sniper sights and Makarov pistols shot dead all 52 guards, including two women operating the telephone system. The mob then left the jail and went to the military base in the town. There was a shootout and they took over the arsenal where there are 150 AK47s, and 300 RGD-5 grenades. They headed for the administration building, shot up the police and took the building.

Karimov's government said that 169 people died in the violence, including 32 government troops. It described the rest of the victims as armed Islamic extremists,

While the Uzbek accusations of Muslim terrorists might be exaggerated, one is not sure if they were not involved in Andijan. However, freeing prisoners and killing security personnel does need training, organization and encouragement from outside. Uzbek authorities alleged that HT cadres in Andijan were in touch with their leaders in Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan. Of course, HT spokespersons in London routinely denied the charges.

Many Jihadis organizations, even Sikh militant ones were allowed to operate in UK, whose role remains questionable .USA trained and financed most of the Jihadis outfits in Afghanistan and gave them international exposure by bringing them to Albania and Kosovo to fight Russian ally Milosevich. USA has still not blacklisted many outfits, which organize terror in Kashmir and India. While it has blacklisted Marxist Kurdish Labor party (PKK) of Turkey, it has done little to eliminate it in north Iraq under its control, in spite of repeated promises to Turkey.

Therefore, the role of UK and USA remains ambivalent and not helpful where others are affected. USA under President Jimmy Carter had financed and supported anti regime elements in Afghanistan, even before the Soviet troops had entered Afghanistan. Catalogue of their actions to destabilize regimes in Latin America, not ruled by its puppets, is a legion. As for UK’s credibility, when twice Prime Minister Tony Blair went to Moscow before the invasion of Iraq, Russian leadership had told him in media conferences that UK’s WMD dossiers were not reliable.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov compared the Andijan uprising to a "Taliban-like provocation". He even said that foreign radical forces, particularly Taliban, were involved. He added that "I do not think any country will tolerate foreign forces seizing arms depots, staging violence, raiding administrative buildings and taking hostages on its territory."

Lavrov asked for a "thorough investigation" into who sent the group of gunmen into Andijan and why, as intelligence reports indicated, "Foreigners were among the gunmen". He even suggested that the UN Security Council's anti-terrorism committee, the CIS’s anti-terrorist committee and the SCO should all be involved in the investigation. He called for measures for calming the situation.

This writer who visited Andijan , apart from Bukhara ,Samarkand and Tashkent on a lecture tour at their universities in end 1998 feels that Ferghana valley divided among Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and adjoining Kazakhstan could become the explosive nerve center for Jihadis activities , if not contained by also looking into economic and social grievances. It could affect CARs, South Asia and Russia’s Muslim regions like Tatarstan, Bashkiria, Chuvashia, Udmurtia and other regions

Curiously, majority of 40,000-strong Bukharan Jews in the New York, who immigrated in early 1990s maintained their support for Islam Karimov, Many said that the United States, should stand by Karimov otherwise Islamists might take over the country and persecute the estimated 30,000 to 50,000 Jews still there. However, they added that Karimov must allow more democracy and economic liberalization.

Rafael Nektalov, editor-in-chief of the community’s Bukharian Times, who was in Uzbekistan last week , said the Jews he met were calm and maintained staunch support for Karimov — a position he shared. “I think the U.S. must support Karimov at this moment,” he said. “Do people who call for a new regime in Uzbekistan really think those who carried out the uprising and prison break in Andijan are humanitarians who would govern democratically if they ever take power?”

Nevertheless, some like David and Sarah Tamayev, disagreed. “We found that things were so bad economically in Bukhara that almost the entire male population of the city was away working in Russia in order to help their families survive,” “Karimov is guilty of creating a situation where people have nothing to eat. Karimov’s rule is good only for his relatives. The vast majority endure terrible poverty.” However, they agreed that if Karimov falls, there might be a takeover by Islamic extremists. “Perhaps the U.S. should not try to push Karimov out, but we certainly should be pressing him to reform the system and allow democracy.”

None of the economic models implemented in central Asia have fulfilled the aspirations of the people. In Kyrgyzstan, US had full freedom through its institutions to promote democracy, which only resulted in Akaev downfall. If things go wrong leaders from Georgia and Ukraine can escape to the West .But after the Tulip revolution the Kyrgyz leaders , even those who have come into power are wiser with Russia playing a stabilizing role .On Putin’s advice acting President Kurmanbek Bakiyev and the other strongman Felix Kulov have agreed to maintain peace and unity at home. Kulov was also reconciled with Akaev. Certainly, Russia , China and SCO would now play a more important role in Kyrgyzstan .

Bakiyev extended support to Karimov over Andijan and said ,"This violence happened because of those known as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and Hizbut Tahrir. In no way this can lead to a good life. There should be peace. I do not support the views of those who want to establish a state under the rule of a religious body." The Kyrgyz and Uzbek security authorities are now working closely to stabilize the situation. Supported openly by US Embassy and other US organizations , the regime change in Kyrgyzstan has brought little gains to its people .

NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer joined others to increase pressure on Karimov to accept an international probe into the uprising. "We'll have to put up the pressure now," de Hoop Scheffer said. "The government in Uzbekistan, President Karimov really should accept the international inquiry ... They owe that to the international community."

The UN had also called for an international probe, which was backed by the Europe Union (EU). With Karimov as its strategic ally in its war against terrorism, USA took some time to react . Washington has "been quite clear that we're concerned about arrests that are going on in [the eastern Uzbek city of] Andizhan," said the US State Department spokesperson Richard Boucher. "We think the government is trying to silence activists and journalists through these arrests. And once again, freedom of speech and open access is necessary for a credible investigation," he added lamely.

In its annual report on "The State of the World's Human Rights," Amnesty International said the U.S. Navy base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, "has become the gulag of our times" and accused U.S. officials of flaunting international law in their treatment of detainees. It urged foreign governments to use international law to investigate Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld , Attorney General Alberto Gonzales and other alleged American "architects of torture" at Abu Gharib, Guantanamo Bay and other prisons where detainees suspected of ties to terrorist groups have been interrogated.

William Schulz, executive director of the U.S branch of the Amnesty International said the Geneva Conventions and the Convention Against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhumane or Degrading Treatment legally bind the countries that have signed them to exercise "universal jurisdiction" on people suspected of violations." If those investigations support prosecution, the governments should arrest any official who enters their territory and begin legal proceedings against them," added Schulz .

The Agency warned that , "The apparent high-level architects of torture should think twice before planning their next vacation to places like Acapulco or the French Riviera because they may find themselves under arrest as Augusto Pinochet famously did in London in 1998." There is no statute of limitations on crimes such as torture, Schulz said. Amnesty International called on President Bush and Congress to appoint an independent, bipartisan panel, modeled after the Sept. 11 commission, to investigate the "various allegations of abuse of terrorist suspects." The call has been supported by many former Congressmen and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations , Thomas Pickering.

Among others, USA’s strategic partner , President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan, also demanded an investigation of allegations that US interrogators abused the Koran at Guantanamo Bay.

Scott McClellan, the White House press secretary, called the charges "unsupported by the facts."
The well-publicized abuses of detainees have been a "stain on the image of the United States abroad," he conceded, but the exposures only reinforced the administration's commitment to human rights. "We hold people accountable when there is abuse," he said.

Secretary of State Condeleeza Rice dismissed demands for an independent investigation of conditions at the Guantanamo Bay detention center, and labeled as ''absurd" the Amnesty International report equating the facility with Soviet-era gulags.” The United States is as open a society as you will find," Rice said, and the administration is being held accountable ''by a free press, by a Congress that is a separate and coequal branch of government, and by its own expectations of what is right."

''The United States of America is one of the strongest defenders of human rights around the world," Rice said. She added that personnel at the Guantanamo Bay facility in Cuba have shown great respect for detainees' religion.”

Too much is now known around the world with US credibility in tatters .British MP George Galloway , while putting to sword false accusations against him of money transactions with Saddam Hussein , instead accused that the US senate subcommittee for creating a mother of all ‘smoke screens’ to hide unaccounted disappearance of $8.8 billion Iraqi oil revenues and wastage of hundreds of billions of US taxpayers money in a war that has become a quagmire .US media ignored the exposure of US administration and dared not take on Galloway who won defamation case against a British paper. When US installed President Hamid Karzai , complained of US abuse of detainees in Afghanistan , US media drowned it in accusations of record poppy production , where the fault lies mostly with the West. Even personal security to Karzai is provided by US mercenaries.

Yes, people have protested against high unemployment, low wages, rampant corruption, poor living conditions and constant repression in CARs . However, what happens when Iraqis do the same in Iraq now under US led occupation? Does western media cover it honestly ? US media is almost totally under US corporate control , which could become a danger to democracy in USA.

Andréa Grozin a CIS Institute expert on Central Asia , thinks that Uzbekistan needs outside help to battle poverty, corruption, and lack of resources. He added that “Islam Karimov has considerably run out of options for himself as a leader --- as a person and a president, and not his regime. I won’t agree with a majority of rights activists who say that this is the end of his regime and change is just around the corner, all but a velvet revolution. Uzbekistan is not Kyrgyzstan, and certainly not Georgia and Ukraine.’

“The regime would not have maintained itself on guns alone and on the will of Islam Karimov, if it did not have the wide support of considerable groups of society. I am very skeptical about democratizing Uzbekistan and the Fergana Valley in particular. Mass consciousness there is for the large part not disposed towards modernization. Values accepted worldwide are often not applicable here” He added that ” It is no secret that outbursts of social discontent occur practically every month in Uzbekistan, although without the use of firearms. In the last six months, according to my own estimates, there have been more than ten such outbursts.”

”This is not the last uprising. No matter how harshly it is suppressed, problems and unresolved issues will still remain: overpopulation, lack of resources, in the first place of land and water. In essence, Uzbekistan has built itself a late-Soviet model state capitalism with the lower elements of a market that existed in the East under Leonid Brezhnev. At the same time, its neighbors — Kyrgyzstan, despite the fact that it is a poor, mountainous country, and especially Kazakhstan — are demonstrating much more rapid rates of economic development.”

Grozin added that behind the uprising ”there were Islamists and criminal elements. Different people and organizations were involved in the unrest. It is no secret in Uzbekistan that the Fergana Valley is the most criminalized region where certain authoritative businesspersons with a shady reputation carry powerful weight — both economically and socially. They have the power to considerably influence public consciousness.

”The basis of their activities is the narcotics trade. Nevertheless, there is the strict economic regime, many police, many officials, and they have to be bribed. The profitability of drug trafficking falls because of the strictness of the regime and the degree of corruption in it. If the regime slackened, then of course the profitability of the drug trade would increase by several times. It is clear that without a centralized authority, it is easier and economically more favorable to drive caravans though the Fergana Valley to Jalalabad, Osh, and other places. Nevertheless, it would not be right to attribute the rebellion to the drug lords. It is the same thing as saying that the Taliban fought there. The process involved several layers. Different groups of those involved had different aims.

Grozin suggested why the uprising ended so quickly, with so much bloodshed, and so unsuccessfully for those who set it up, because there was no serious organization and no coordination of interests.
In the demonstration that preceded the shooting, there were no demands that Karimov abdicate, or any other political demands. There were social demands, demands for fairness and the release of unjustly convicted members of the Akramia movement.”

Konstantin Zatulin, Director, Russian Institute of CIS Countries Studies said that "They used to be America's friends. They allowed Americans to start bases in their [Uzbek] land. They threw the doors open to Western capital. All that made them sure such policies not so much promoted stability as endangered Uzbekistan's ruling regime."

Zatulin added: "We Russians see to the root of current Central Asian developments deeper than anyone else. To my mind, it is either wishful thinking or sheer provocation to expect Uzbekistan setting up democracy on the British or US pattern overnight." It is naive to think that, "we could expect a democratic regime to come to Uzbekistan if only Karimov had been behaving like [Askar] Akayev [recently overthrown Kyrgyz president]"

The Uzbek decision to grant military base to the US was made in October after the 9/11 attacks when an insistent US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld camped in Tashkent . Karimov obsessed with Islamic militancy in Taliban ruled Afghanistan next door agreed and exploit Islamic terrorism for shoring up his regime. He thought he was buying peace from the West for his highhanded regime. He was not fully wrong as seen from the muted US reaction. US gives hundreds of million of dollars in aid for use of Karshi Hanabad base, where approximately 1,500 US personnel are stationed. The base serves as a major supply facility for the continuing the war in neighboring Afghanistan and for projecting US military power in Central Asia.

As Ahmed Rashid wrote after the Kyrgyzstan fiasco , there is little chance of democracy coming to central Asia and the blame must “rest with the United States, Russia and China, which have failed to move the region's regimes closer to democracy “”For the past four years, the Bush administration has embraced the regimes rather than the peoples, as the Pentagon and NATO ran military bases out of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and the CIA sought countries where it could "render" suspected terrorists to be interrogated and tortured in secret by local intelligence agencies”

“Uzbekistan is one of at least 10 countries where the CIA has rendered dozens of suspects. Until the revolution in Kyrgyzstan, U.S. diplomats at the State Department had fought a losing battle with the Pentagon and the CIA to adopt a more nuance policy toward the regimes, using U.S. aid to bargain for economic and political reforms.”

While Russia is seeking to re-impose Russian influence on its former territory and has military bases in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan , Russian oil companies have a huge stake in Kazakhstan and virtually monopolize Turkmenistan's gas industry. Regimes in Central Asian Republics are quite happy with this. China, has also increased its economic stake in the region, to better control its own restive Muslim population in Xinjiang Province.

After the collapse of USSR and the end of the Soviet era, there has been a massive impoverishment of the people in not only in Central Asia but also even in many East European states, with social services like education and health virtually collapsing in some states. Millions from Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan work in Kazakhstan and Russia , where things have improved primarily because of increased oil prices. GDP has been cornered by the ruling elites in East Europe, with more neon light glitter , while impoverished masses suffer.

K Gajendra Singh, served as Indian Ambassador to Turkey and Azerbaijan in1992 -96. Prior to that, he served as ambassador to Jordan (during the1990 - 91Gulf war), Romania and Senegal. He is currently chairman of the Foundation for Indo-Turkic Studies, in Bucharest. This article was also published by Saag.org. The views expressed here are his own.- Email- Gajendrak@mwcnews.net" target="_blank">Gajendrak@mwcnews.net

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