Who is the worse terrorist, Obama or Osama?

President Barack Obama is making the Afghan War Obama’s Afghan War. Careful analysis of UN mortality statistics reveals that 46,000 Afghans have died avoidably in the first 40 days of the Obama presidency, including 32,250 infant deaths due to US war crimes..

On 27 March 2009 Obama unveiled a new strategy for Occupied Afghanistan and robot-bombed Pakistan: "The situation is increasingly perilous. It's been more than seven years since the Taliban was removed from power, yet war rages on and insurgents control parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan… Understand that we have a clear and focused goal: to disrupt, dismantle and defeat al-Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and to prevent their return to either country in the future…That's the goal that must be achieved. That is a cause that could not be more just."

Obama, who has already ordered a surge of more than 17,000 additional U.S. soldiers and Marines to Afghanistan, promised another 4,000 “trainer” troops, taking the total to more than 55,000. Another 30,000 soldiers from various allied and NATO nations, including 2,500 from Canada and 1,000 from Australia, are also deployed in Afghanistan (see Globe & Mail, 28 March 2009)

Now PM Rudd of close US ally Australia has indicated that the Australian Government will send more troops to Afghanistan: "Australia and the United States and our allies and partners and friends need a credible, long-term strategy capable of securing the strategic mission, and the strategic mission is all about denying Afghanistan as a state for free operation for terrorists to have safe haven and training grounds to launch attacks in the future."

The initial “justification” for the War on Afghanistan was refusal of the mostly Pashtun Taliban Afghan Government to hand over the US-alleged master-mind of the 9-11 atrocity, Osama bin-Laden, to the US, although the Afghan Government offered to such a hand-over to a third party, noting that the US refuses to hand over alleged US war criminals to the International Criminal Court.

War and occupation of other countries is strenuously avoided by decent people and decent societies and for good reason – post-war violent occupation of other countries is typically associated with massive numbers of violent and non-violent excess deaths (avoidable deaths, deaths that should not otherwise have happened).

War is only justified in circumstances of illegal invasion and occupation by another country.

National excess mortality (avoidable mortality, excess death, avoidable deaths, deaths that should not have happened) is defined as the difference between actual deaths in a country and the deaths expected for a peaceful, decently-run country with the same demographics. The UN Population Division provides regularly updated data enabling authoritative estimation of mortality, excess mortality and infant mortality (see my book “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950”: http://mwcnews.net/Gideon-Polya ).

1. Using UN Population Division annual mortality data one can calculate (as of March 2009) post-invasion excess mortality of 3.1 million persons for Occupied Afghanistan (using a base-line annual mortality rate of 4 deaths per 1,000 of population for a peaceful, decently-run country with the same demographics).

2. Using UN Population Division data one can estimate post-invasion under-5 infant deaths at 2.25 million of which about 90% (2.0 million) have been avoidable deaths.

3. For impoverished Third World countries, under-5 infant deaths are about 0.7 of the total excess deaths. Accordingly, one can also estimate post-invasion excess deaths as 2.25 million/0.7 = 3.2 million (see “Layperson’s guide to counting Iraq deaths”: http://mwcnews.net/content/view/5872/26/ ).

4. In Occupied Iraq post-invasion violent deaths have totalled 1.3 million as compared to post-invasion non-violent excess deaths of 1.0 million. Assuming that the violent/non-violent excess deaths ratio in Occupied Afghanistan is half that in Occupied Iraq,  then the post-invasion violent deaths in Occupied Afghanistan would be 0.65 x 3.15 million = 2.0 million (see “Iraq invasion 6th anniversary. 2.3 million excess deaths”: http://mwcnews.net/content/view/29360/42/ ).

5. The latest data from UNHCR indicate about 4 million refugees from the Afghanistan War, the breakdown being 2.1 million (Pakistan), 0.9 million (Iran), 0.4 million returnees and internally displaced persons (Occupied Afghanistan) and 0.3 million (refugees from the Pakistan North West Provinces) (see UNHCR ).

6. The estimate of a current 327,000 “annual under-5 infant deaths” in Occupied Afghanistan (from UN Population Division data)  is in exact agreement with the estimate of 327,000 annual under-5 infant deaths in Occupied Afghanistan from UNICEF (see UNICEF).

7. Deaths from the Afghanistan War must also include post-invasion global opiate drug-related deaths due to US Alliance restoration of the Taliban-destroyed Afghan opium industry from  about 6% in 2001 to 93% in 2007 (see UNODC World Drug Report 2007). About 0.1 million people die from opiate drug-related causes each year (see Australian National Drug Research Centre) and hence about 0.85 million have died since the invasion of Afghanistan, of whom about 90%, i.e. 0.9 x 0.85 million = 0.8 million people, have died as a result of the huge expansion of the Afghan opium industry under US Alliance occupation.

8. US Alliance military deaths in Occupied Afghanistan total 1,122 (673 US and 449 from other US Alliance countries) (see: http://icasualties.org/oef/ ).

9. In 2005, of 18,347 deaths due to narcotics and psychodysleptics, 12, 262 were due to heroin (2,011) , other opioids (5,789) or methadone (4,462) (see US CDC) . Given the over 90% contribution  of the US restoration of the Taliban-destroyed opium industry to world illicit heroin production, and the interconnectedness and effective indistinguishability of “Afghan-derived heroin” from  the “pool” of other abusively-used opiates, one can accordingly crudely estimate 0.9 x 12,262 persons/year  x 8.5 years = 93,804 US opiate drug-related deaths (0.9 x 2,011 deaths/year  x 8.5 years = 15,384 heroin-related deaths) connected with the aftermath of the US invasion and occupation of Afghanistan

10. It can be estimated that there are about 426 opiate-related deaths annually in Australia (see: here)  of which about 90% (383) are due to the US-responsible Occupied Afghan contribution to the world heroin  market  i.e. 383 x 8.5 years = 3,300 opiate-related deaths since the invasion of Afghanistan (the Australian Government has fatuously obfuscated this in detailed communication to me by saying that most of Australia’s heroin actually comes from places other than Afghanistan) .

11. The number of Western civilians killed by Muslim-origin non-state terrorists in the last 40 years totals about 7,000 (this including Israelis and ignores substantial evidence for US or US surrogate involvement in the 9-11 atrocity (see “US responsible for 9-11?”: http://mwcnews.net/content/view/22944/26/ ).

12. In shocking contrast to the numbers in #11, as of March 2009 in the Occupied Palestinian, Iraqi and Afghan Territories post-invasion non-violent excess deaths total 0.3 million, 1.0 million and 3.2 million, respectively;  post-invasion violent deaths total about 10,000, 1.3 million and about 2 million, respectively (see #4 above); post-invasion under-5 infant deaths total 0.2 million, 0.6 million and 2.3 million, respectively; and refugees total 7 million, 6 million and 4 million, respectively – this constituting a Palestinian Holocaust, an Iraqi Holocaust and an Afghan Holocaust and a Palestinian Genocide, Iraqi Genocide and Afghan Genocide as defined by Article 2 of the UN Genocide Convention and egregious war crimes due in part to Occupier war criminal non-supply of life-sustaining food and medical requisites demanded unequivocally by Articles 55 and 56 of the Geneva Convention Relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War (for detailed documentation of sources see “Iraq invasion 6th anniversary. 2.3 million excess deaths”: http://mwcnews.net/content/view/29360/42/ ).

What can we conclude from this tragic litany?

More Australians have died from opiates due to the US-restoration of the Taliban-destroyed Afghan opium industry (3,300) than the number of victims of the 9-11 atrocity (3,000). Should Australia demand that Obama hands over the responsible Americans to Australia for justice?

Vastly more global citizens (0.8 million) and US citizens (94,000) have died from opiates since the US invasion of Afghanistan and the US Alliance restoration of the Taliban-destroyed opium industry than those who died on 9-11 (3,000). Should the World demand that Obama hand over the American perpetrators for justice before the International Criminal Court?

There is universal detestation of paedophiles, but paedocides – those who kill children – elicit utter horror. From the above data one can estimate that 327,000 Occupied Afghan under-5 year old infants die each year under US Alliance occupation, 90% avoidably and due to US Alliance war crimes i.e. 0.9 x 327,000 = 294,300 avoidable Occupied Afghan infant deaths yearly,  806 deaths daily and 40 days x 806 infant deaths/day = 32,250  avoidable Afghan under-5 infant deaths so far in the first 40 days and nights of the Obama Administration.

32,500 Afghan under-5 infant deaths corresponds to 32,250/0.7 = 46,000 avoidable Afghan deaths due to Obama. With 46,000 Afghan avoidable deaths in 40 days to his credit, Obama has already vastly exceeded the US-alleged Muslim-origin non-state terrorist body count of 7,000 total Western deaths over 40 years.

Who is the worse terrorist, Obama or Osama? Obama already wins hands down as the worse terrorist by an enormous margin. With Obama backing continuing foreign occupations of Haiti, Somalia, Diego Garcia, Palestine, Syria, Iraq and  Afghanistan, extending US bombing of Pakistan and now permitting US or Israeli bombing of Sudan, Obama  is set to take over the mantle from George W. Bush for being  the World’s worst terrorist.

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